June 29 (Monday) Complete Gold Price Trend Forecast

I. Overall Characterization (65% probability main scenario)
Wide-range volatile and weak throughout the day, rising then falling, the rebound is only a technical repair after a sharp decline, belonging to a mid-term downtrend continuation, unable to reverse the medium-term bearish trend.
On Monday, market sentiment is extremely cautious, with the entire market waiting for the core PCE inflation data on Tuesday evening. Neither bulls nor bears will actively open heavy directional positions, leading to repeated back-and-forth fluctuations and many long upper shadows.
II. Complete Intraday Rhythm (London Spot Gold)
1. Asian Session (Early morning 9:00-15:00): Slightly higher open, moderate rally
- Estimated opening: 4085–4092 USD/oz
- Trend: Relying on the rebound inertia from Friday, it edges higher, slowly testing the strong resistance zone of 4090–4100 USD
- Key feature: When it reaches above 4095, selling pressure immediately increases, making it difficult to hold the 4100 level. After the rally loses steam, it begins to oscillate and pull back.
2. European Session (15:00-20:00): Oscillating weaker, retesting first support
The upward momentum is exhausted, bullish buying exits, the dollar and US bond yields edge up, putting pressure on gold prices;
Prices fall to the 4030–4060 range and oscillate sideways. 4040 is the intraday short-term strength/weakness line. If it breaks below, further decline toward the 4000 level.
3. US Session (20:00 to early morning): Bears exert force, intraday low likely appears in the evening
At night, the US stock market opens, month-end institutional fund rebalancing, and continued ETF outflows suppress the market.