Reuters reported that on June 27, the US launched a new round of strikes against Iran, following an attack on oil tankers near the Strait of Hormuz, with Iran and the US accusing each other of undermining the ceasefire;

Other reports indicate that after the tanker attack in the Strait of Hormuz, tensions have reached their highest level since the interim peace agreement.
USO is currently around $105.48, down 3.5% on the day, but this is a cross-section of volatility before and after the geopolitical escalation, and the risk premium needs to be reassessed going forward.
Oil prices had been falling earlier as the market was trading on "supply recovery";
Now, with another tanker attack and US-Iran strikes, it shows that the Hormuz risk has not been resolved. Crude oil can easily spike suddenly from low levels.
If the conflict does not expand further, a drop in oil prices would still be beneficial for cooling inflation and repairing risk assets.
Once Hormuz transit slows significantly again and insurance rates surge, oil prices will quickly reprice war premiums.
Watch WTI 69-70, Brent 72-75;
The number of vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz;
Whether the US and Iran continue to strike each other.
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