#美伊60天停火协议实质破裂

The 60-day ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran still couldn’t last to the end. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps issued a statement today, saying that its navy and air force used missiles and drones to strike multiple key U.S. military installations—at the Ali Al Salem Air Base in Kuwait and at the U.S. Navy’s Fifth Fleet in Bahrain—in a decisive response to the U.S.’s recent acts of aggression. From the attack on oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, to two consecutive days of U.S. airstrikes on Iran, and then Iran’s direct retaliation against U.S. forces stationed in the Middle East, both sides have moved from limited probing back to direct military exchanges. More importantly, Iran has begun again to send signals that it may tighten its control over the Strait of Hormuz, meaning uncertainty in global energy transportation is back.

For the market, this is no longer just a geopolitical news item—it’s a liquidity issue. If the risks in the Strait of Hormuz continue to build, oil prices, inflation expectations, and U.S. Treasury yields will all be affected again. In an environment that is already hawkish for the Federal Reserve, rate-cut expectations can only be pushed further back, and the probability of rate hikes within the year continues to rise. Risk assets will also have to undergo yet another macro stress test—bad news piled on for BTC. This situation is more painful than a one-time negative headline. Because what truly constrains risk assets is not the war itself, but the war-driven combination of high oil prices, high inflation, and persistently tight liquidity. As long as this logic doesn’t change, the remaining liquidity is more likely to flow toward U.S. stock market leaders in the AI sector with greater certainty, rather than the crypto market.