The big fire in the Middle East has fully burned through. Wake up, brothers who are still trading stocks and crypto with a risk-averse mindset.

Fellow investors, stop dreaming based on outdated playbooks from a decade ago! In the past, we always said that once war broke out in the Middle East, gold and crude oil would take off immediately. But this time, the US and Iran are actually exchanging fire, giving us a bloody real-world lesson: the old risk-hedging logic simply doesn't work anymore.
The previously agreed sixty-day ceasefire agreement is now shattered into pieces. Both sides have completely torn off all pretense. The Strait of Hormuz, the world's energy lifeline, is on the verge of exploding at any moment. Many brothers who heavily bet on risk hedging are already slapping their thighs in regret as they watch their portfolios bleed.
Let's break this down clearly: the conflict escalates step by step, with no sign of de-escalation. On the 27th, a Panamanian oil tanker was immediately hit by a drone strike in the Strait of Hormuz—this is the fuse for war. The US military didn't hold back; the next day, it directly sent fighter jets to bomb southern Iran, specifically targeting warehouses storing missiles and drones. This is a clear and strong counterstrike with no intention of backing down.
Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps is no pushover either. They retaliated by directly locking onto four US military bases in Qatar, Kuwait, UAE, and Bahrain, launching revenge attacks. Bahrain's government has already confirmed that its base was attacked. Beyond that, Iran issued a stern warning, not ruling out taking harsh measures against all merchant ships passing through the Strait. This effectively seizes control of the global oil transport lifeline. Trump also dropped a hardline statement, threatening to make Iran cease to exist. Both sides have completely lost any room for negotiation, and the previously agreed Strait navigation agreement is now null and void.
This is the largest and most intense exchange of fire since the ceasefire agreement was signed, pushing the Middle East conflict directly into a more dangerous new phase. From the perspective of our investment landscape, many people can't understand: logically, the fiercer the war, the more risk-averse assets should surge. But the reality is the opposite.
The root cause lies in the Fed's interest rate hikes hanging like a sword overhead. The bearish pressure from high interest rates is ten times stronger than the short-term bullish boost from geopolitical conflicts. In the past, when isolated local conflicts broke out, capital would briefly hide in gold. But now, the rate hike expectation crushes the market. No matter how fiercely the Middle East fights, any market rebound is a flash in the pan—the bears will immediately smash prices and harvest the bottom-fishing retail traders.
What's worse is that multiple risks are piling up right now. This week's market volatility will be terrifying. Month-end institutional portfolio rebalancing, the imminent release of non-farm payroll data, and the constant threat of further Middle East war escalation—there are big traps on both the long and short sides. Brothers with heavy positions and maxed leverage, please be extra careful.
Don't go all-in on gold and crude oil betting on conflict escalation. The battlefield situation changes by the minute, and policy headwinds are firmly suppressing the market. There is no one-sided trend. Investing is like waging war: only by preserving your capital can you fight for the long haul. With such big waves right now, light positions and tight risk control are the way to go. Don't blindly rush in to hold the line, only to end up losing every last chip in your hand.