Fellas, this week might be the most dangerous week of the year.

No doubt about it.

Gold has broken below $4000. Silver has been cut in half. Bitcoin has dropped to $58,000.

"The currency devaluation trade" — is completely falling apart.

Fed Chair Walsh is screaming hawkish on camera every day. The dollar index has surged to 101.37, rising for two consecutive weeks.

In theory, war should be bullish for gold, right?

And yet? On the 26th, the US and Iran just exchanged fire in the Strait of Hormuz, with the US military striking Iranian military targets — gold still dropped without mercy.

The suppressing force of the rate hike narrative is even stronger than war.

But the real storm is still on the way.

Here's the timeline — feel it yourself:

June 30 — End of month + end of quarter, institutions collectively adjust their books for rebalancing. Trillions of dollars in asset rebalancing will drain liquidity.

July 2 — Nonfarm payrolls data released early (due to Independence Day holiday). Expected job growth of 172k.

On top of that — The US-Iran conflict continues to escalate. The Strait of Hormuz could spiral out of control at any moment.

Three devastating blows stacked together.

Analysts have already warned: This week could be the highest single-week volatility risk of the year.

Now let's run through two scenarios:

Scenario A (Low probability, violent rebound):

Nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly weak. Employment data underperforms, and Walsh suddenly turns dovish. BTC violently recovers from $58,000, surging back to $65,000 or even $70k.

Don't kid yourself. You know exactly how likely that is.

Scenario B (High probability, continued bottoming):

Nonfarm payrolls strong. Unemployment rate holds steady at 4.3% or even lower. Rate hike expectations are fully priced in.

BTC directly tests $55k. Can't hold it? See you at $52k.

The current position at $60k is just a midpoint in the decline.

Data from Polymarket — Probability of BTC dropping below $50k by year-end: 62%.

So what to do now?

Don't bet on direction. Don't try to catch a falling knife.

Amid these three devastating blows, staying in the game is ten thousand times more important than making a quick profit.

Here are three survival rules for you:

First, de-leverage. This is not the time to "gamble a scooter into a motorcycle." This is the time to "stay alive."

Second, buy straddles. Buy a Call + Buy a Put, bet on both sides. The more volatility, the more you profit — regardless of whether it goes up or down.

Third, keep cash in reserve. Wait for the dust to settle. Wait for the other shoe to drop. Wait for panic selling to create the real bottom, then enter to scoop up the remains.

Don't try to catch a falling knife.

Wait for it to hit the ground, wait for the dust to settle,

Then bend down to pick it up — by then it won't be sharp anymore.

Right now, the market is a bunch of falling knives dropping one after another.

Gold is falling. Silver is falling. Bitcoin is falling.

Reach out to catch them, and you'll cut your own flesh.

Before Monday, June 30, I cleared all my leverage.

I kept 30% USDT cash.

I placed two orders: one to buy in batches at $55k, and one to chase the breakout at $70k. #0成本拿2股SK海力士 #美光市值超越Meta跻身全美前十 #美国5月PCE通胀升至4.1%创三年新高 $BTC $XAU $XAG