🤯 When war breaks out, gold actually kneels first?

Just after the US and Iran signed a ceasefire agreement, Iran turned around and sent missiles and drones to hit US military bases in Kuwait and Bahrain. Trump said, “Iran will no longer exist,” while Israel continues to deliver additional strikes in southern Lebanon. The geopolitical powder keg is so sensitive that it explodes with just a little spark—so what do you think happened?

Gold fell below $4,000, marking the first time in 2026. Yes—when the war escalated, gold fell instead.

After Federal Reserve Chair Warsh took office, he kept sending hawkish signals, and the market is now fully pricing in expectations of at least two rate hikes before Q1 2027. The US dollar strengthened, and the opportunity cost of holding gold and Bitcoin—non-yielding assets—rose sharply.

$BTC —It rebounded from 58K back to 60K, but resistance is around 60,800 above. ETFs saw net outflows for six straight weeks totaling $3.75 billion. Can the 60K psychological level hold? Hard to say.

$ETH —Even worse: during the session it fell below 1,500 to a 14-month low. For the first time, USDT market cap surpassed ETH. With stablecoins > the second-largest public chain, this is an extreme risk-avoidance signal. 1,520–1,524 is the lifeline—if it truly breaks, you can’t even imagine the downside space.

$XAU —Four consecutive bearish weekly candles, once dropping to 3,959. On Friday it rebounded back to around 4,088, but above 4,100 is all trapped positioning.

Even more intense: this week’s non-farm payrolls are being released early on July 2 (Thursday) due to the Independence Day holiday, along with end-of-month institutional rebalancing and the repeated back-and-forth in US-Iran tensions. Analysts say this is the week this year with the highest risk of one-week volatility.

With triple pressure stacking on top of itself, the eye of the storm has already formed.

👀 What do you think? Is 60K BTC the bottom, or just halfway down the slope? Let’s discuss your view in the comments.