Super Data Week Arrives: Nonfarm Payrolls Released Early on Thursday, US-Iran Conflict Escalates Again, Month-End Rebalancing Amplifies Volatility Risk

Mars Finance News, June 28 – This week, global markets are set to face a highly complex situation with multiple overlapping factors: Super Data Week, early release of the Nonfarm Payrolls, institutional portfolio rebalancing at the end of the month, quarter, and half-year, as well as the renewed escalation of the US-Iran conflict, which could lead to a sharp spike in market volatility.

On the geopolitical front, tensions have not eased after the US-Iran ceasefire agreement was signed. On Saturday, the US military launched a second round of airstrikes on Iranian targets, following an Iranian drone sinking the Panamanian-flagged oil tanker "Kiku," which was carrying over 2 million barrels of crude oil. Iran's Revolutionary Guard immediately retaliated with missile and drone strikes against Kuwait and Bahrain, warning that any violation of the agreement would trigger a "devastating response." Risks in the Strait of Hormuz have heated up again, putting upward pressure on oil prices, which had previously fallen back to around $72. Commerzbank warned that the market is overly optimistic about supply recovery, noting that Cushing crude oil inventories are already below the level needed for system stability.

On the data front, due to the US Independence Day holiday on July 4, this month's Nonfarm Payrolls report has been moved up to Thursday (July 2). The market expects 130k new jobs to be added in June. The data schedule this week is dense, including Tuesday's JOLTS job openings, Wednesday's ADP employment and ISM Manufacturing PMI, and the eurozone's June CPI preliminary data. Multiple data points will alternately impact the market. Additionally, the May PCE released last week rose 4.1% year-over-year, hitting a nearly three-year high, further strengthening expectations of a Fed rate hike this year.

In terms of asset performance, the S&P 500 has gained over 7% in the first half of the year, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index has surged 85% from its March low, but the Nasdaq has fallen over 4% this week. Gold failed to hold the $4,100 level under strong US data and inflation pressures, but a Kitco survey shows both institutions and retail investors are predominantly bearish. JPMorgan raised its year-end S&P 500 target from 7,200 to 7,800 this week, but multiple institutions advise investors to remain cautious as they enter the second half of the year, waiting for buying opportunities created by volatility.