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South Korea’s team suffered yet another major setback: their chance of advancing dropped from 94% to 17%.

Recently, “helping South Korea calculate qualification and advancement scenarios” has become a trending topic, and a number of teams have joined in to “deliver extra blows.” Over the past two days, South Korean fans have cheered for countless teams, but so far the only one willing to help has been Spain. Currently, after Croatia beat Ghana 2-1 and both teams advanced together, South Korea’s advancement prospects—now with a goal difference of -1—have taken a sharp turn for the worse. They are 8th among the 12 third-placed teams, in 3rd place of those groups, and they have completely lost control of the situation. With only the final two groups’ two matches remaining, South Korea can qualify only if all results meet requirements. If any condition fails, they are eliminated immediately. Their chance of advancing has already fallen from 94% to 17%.

Because the group containing South Korea (Group A) finished all its matches on the first matchday of the third round, they can only watch helplessly as other groups’ results push them one step at a time toward the edge—first blow: Bosnia and Herzegovina. In the third round of Group B, Bosnia beat Qatar to reach 4 points, locking in one of the best third-place positions and leaving South Korea behind. Second blow: Ecuador. In the final round of Group E, Ecuador pulled off a surprise comeback to beat Germany 2-1, jumping over South Korea in the third-place standings. Third blow: Sweden and Paraguay. Both teams finished with 4 points, firmly occupying the qualification spots. Fourth blow: Senegal. In the final round of Group I, Senegal crushed Iraq 5-0; their goal difference surged from -1 to +2, completely overpowering South Korea’s -1. Fifth blow: Iran. In the final round of Group G, Iran held Egypt to a 1-1 draw; they finished with 3 points as well, but with a better goal difference, surpassing South Korea. Sixth blow: Croatia. In the final round of Group L, Croatia beat Ghana 2-1, finishing with 6 points to advance as group runners-up, while Ghana advanced as a third-place team with 4 points—another berth was snatched away.

Among all the matches played on the 26th, not a single condition that could have helped South Korea came true. South Korea’s rank among third-place teams slipped from 4th all the way to 8th—just precisely on the elimination line; if they drop one more place, they go straight home. At present, 5 third-place teams have already secured qualification. South Korea’s qualification requirements have changed from the initial “meet any 3 conditions” to the remaining two conditions that both must be fulfilled: Uzbekistan beats DR Congo, and Austria beats Algeria. According to Opta data, the qualification probability is now only 17.84%. Right now, DR Congo has already overtaken Uzbekistan—South Korea is most likely done for…