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Institution: The scenario where Trump pressures the Fed to cut rates, leading to inflation above 2%, is unlikely to happen.

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Golden Finance reported that on June 28, Gavekal Research stated in a report: "In 2025, there is widespread market concern that Trump will undermine the independence of U.S. monetary policy by nominating a political puppet as Fed chairman, forcing the Fed to cut interest rates, and causing inflation to persistently exceed the Fed's 2% target." "Developments over the past seven months have made this scenario unlikely." These developments include the appointment of Kevin Warsh to lead the Federal Reserve and the reappointment of 11 of the 12 regional Fed presidents. At his first meeting earlier this month, Warsh emphasized the Fed's commitment to price stability, surprising some market participants who had expected a more dovish stance from the Fed under the new chairman.
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