Many people are asking: When will the U.S. stock market crash?

But I think this question itself is wrongly asked.
Because a true crash never happens suddenly on a single day.
Instead, it occurs when risks accumulate to a certain extent and the market begins to reprice.
If the U.S. stock market truly sees a correction of 20% or more in the next six months,
I believe the most noteworthy time window is:
September to November 2026.
The reason is simple.
Currently, there are only three core logics supporting the U.S. stock market:
AI will continue to create growth, the Fed will eventually shift to easing, and the U.S. economy can achieve a soft landing.
As long as these three stories hold true,
no matter how high the valuations, there will be buyers.
But the problem is that in the coming months, the market will successively see Q2 and Q3 earnings reports.
It will see the actual returns on AI investments, and the real data on employment, consumption, and economic growth.
If the market finds that AI investment far exceeds returns,
the economy begins to slow down, and the Fed cannot quickly release liquidity,
then the logic supporting high valuations will start to loosen.
The real danger is not the economy, but the valuations.