Bitcoin & Gold

$BTC $XAUT
Bitcoin is down about 31% and gold about 6% year-to-date, making them the two worst-performing major assets in the tracked data set. The S&P 500 is up about 9%, small-cap stocks are up 19%, and value stocks are up 15% — almost everything is green except these two.
That’s the strange part. According to analysis by Charlie Bilello, tracking annual returns over the past 15 years, Bitcoin and gold have never finished a calendar year as the two lowest-performing major assets. In 2025, gold rose more than 60% while Bitcoin had its worst year since 2018. Now both are being hit hard at the same time.
What does this mean? The narrative around both assets is changing.
The Safe Haven Asset Question
Bitcoin and gold are widely considered hedges, but this year tells a different story. According to Ross Maxwell at VT Markets, Bitcoin’s 30-day realized volatility across periods of major conflict ranges from 40% to 70%, while gold’s is much lower at 12% to 20%. Bitcoin is still trading like a risk asset, not a safe haven.
Even gold’s credibility as a safe haven asset is being questioned. Economist Robin Brooks argues that gold is now behaving like a high-beta asset, with its correlation to the S&P 500 rising above 0.50 in recent months — on par with Bitcoin’s stock correlation. He believes this shift is partly due to retail flows from the “devaluation trade,” heavily marketed in late 2025.
When investors panic, money flows into cash, Treasury bonds, and AI stocks — not crypto and gold.
What’s Driving the Divergence
Bitcoin’s Pain:
· ETF outflows reached $1.78 billion just this week
· 53% of the BTC supply is held at unrealized losses
· Down more than 50% from the October 2025 peak of $126,080
· Capital is rotating into AI stocks and large-cap IPOs like SpaceX
Gold’s Drift Sideways:
· Down only 6% year-to-date, holding near $4,070 after hitting an all-time high above $5,000 earlier this year
· Still benefiting from central bank buying and geopolitical stress
· But leveraged selling and ETF outflows have put pressure on the metal
Where Will It Go Next?
The Bitcoin-to-gold ratio tells the story. According to WisdomTree’s model, Bitcoin is currently valued about 30% lower than gold under macro conditions such as a weaker U.S. dollar, higher inflation expectations, and institutional demand flows. The model’s fair value estimate for the BTC/gold ratio is around 21, but the actual ratio is closer to 15–16. That’s a significant divergence.
Some analysts see this as a signal. The RSI on the Bitcoin-to-gold ratio has fallen below 30, a historical marker that has only appeared at major cycle bottoms — 2015, 2018, and 2022. In each of the previous cases, extreme relative weakness preceded new expansion phases.
But this time could be different. Both assets now have larger institutional footprints, with ETFs and major capital allocators influencing price action. Goldman Sachs data shows that hedge fund positioning in both Bitcoin and gold continues to be net short.
What this means for you: Both assets are historically cheap relative to the broader market, and the BTC/gold ratio suggests more upside for Bitcoin than for gold if macro conditions stay intact. But both are also proving they are not safe havens as many people think — at least in this cycle. Watch ETF flows, Fed policy, and whether gold’s stock correlation stays elevated. That will tell you whether this is a buying opportunity or a structural shift.
This is not financial advice. Always do your own research.