#黄金行情 Gold spot repeatedly falls below $4,000. Is the gold bull market over?

On June 26, international gold and silver experienced a brief decline. As of this writing, spot gold fell back below $4,000 per ounce, dropping more than 1% intraday to $3,996.47 per ounce; spot silver fell more than 2%, briefly losing the $56 per ounce level.
International gold prices, from a high of $5,321 in early March, briefly fell below $4,000, a decline of more than 25%.
A research report from CICC shows that the current market panic mainly stems from two factors: inflation panic, where the US-Iran conflict pushes oil prices and inflation up, causing market concerns about the persistence of US inflation, forming expectations of monetary tightening; and the Fed turning hawkish, as the market now believes the Fed's policy focus is 'controlling inflation,' with futures markets already pricing in one rate hike each in 2026 and 2027 to restore dollar credibility, and a stronger dollar weighing on gold.
Liu Dongbo, senior analyst at Guotou Futures Research Institute, analyzed to Zhongxin Jingwei that recently, US inflation has strengthened, Fed rate hike expectations have increased, US Treasury Secretary Bessent emphasized a strong dollar tendency, and the US promotes the use of the dollar for settling oil trade with Iran and others, strengthening the dollar system. Many factors have driven the dollar's strength trend, and global risk assets have generally declined.
The CICC research report believes that the two factors of inflation panic and the Fed turning hawkish should not be extrapolated linearly: US inflation may have peaked and could enter a downward path in the second half of this year. Walsh's debut does not mean the Fed has fully shifted to tightening; the current stance may be to leave room for future policy to return to easing. 'Therefore, this gold correction is not the end of the bull market, and the turning point may not be far off.'
CICC reviewed five gold bull markets since 1970 and found that the end of a bull market usually requires specific conditions: historically, gold bull markets all ended when the Fed tightened policy or the economy fully improved, and both conditions are necessary. Therefore, they remain optimistic about gold's future, suggesting maintaining positions, buying on dips, and waiting for the turning point.
Li Gang, research director at the China Foreign Exchange Investment Research Institute, also stated in an interview with Zhongxin Jingwei that international gold prices breaking below $4,000 per ounce is not the end of the long-term gold bull market, but a phase correction after the previous rapid rise.
Li Gang pointed out that from a medium to long-term perspective, the continuous increase in global central bank gold holdings, the high global debt environment, and the trend of international reserve diversification remain unchanged, and the strategic allocation value of gold still exists. It is expected that gold will shift from its previous unilateral rise to a wide-range, high-volatility oscillation phase, with short-term adjustment pressure still present, but the medium to long-term trend will still depend on the Fed's policy, the dollar trend, and changes in global geopolitical risks. Liu Dongbo believes that international gold prices will test support in the range of $3,900-$4,000 per ounce, the low of the fourth quarter of 2025, in the short term and face a key directional choice. Once it breaks below, it will open up downside space.
$XAUUSD