June 27 Gold Market Weekly Analysis: Trend Unchanged, Short-Term Bounce Still Needs Caution

I. This Week's Market Review: Bottoming Rebound, Key Break Confirms Short-Term Direction

Gold showed an overall pattern of falling first and then rising this week:

- Early in the week, gold prices fell from around 4200, bottoming out at a stage low of 3960 USD/oz, entering a consolidation range on Thursday.

- On Friday, after dipping to 3983 USD, it rebounded strongly, breaking through the key resistance level of 4050 USD, hitting a high of 4096 USD in the early morning, and closing near 4080 USD, fully in line with the earlier prediction of "breaking 4050 to see 4100."

From the daily chart perspective, the downtrend since March has not been broken by this round of rebound. 4400 USD remains the key reversal signal level above. Until this level is effectively breached, the larger cycle remains bearish, and the short-term rebound is merely a technical correction.

II. Next Monday's Market Forecast: Short-Term Bounce Continues, Focus on Two Key Levels

Combined with the high close in the early morning, gold is likely to continue upward on Monday, but the core logic needs to be clarified:

1. Support level: The 4050-4030 USD range is a support zone converted from previous resistance. When gold retraces to this area, it is an entry window for short-term long positions.
2. Resistance level: 4100 USD is Friday's early morning high. If it can be effectively broken, the upside can be seen at the previous rebound high area of 4140-4150 USD.
3. Defense level: 3980 USD is Friday's low. If this level is lost, the short-term bounce will end, and gold prices will return to the downtrend channel.

In operation, note the logic shift: Currently in a rebound market, one should look for support to enter and resistance to exit, opposite to the previous downtrend strategy of "enter at resistance, exit at support." Do not confuse them.

III. Key Reminder: Short-Term Bounce ≠ Trend Reversal

This round of rebound is a technical correction after a sharp decline, not a signal of a bull market reversal. It is only suitable for intraday short-term trading. The larger cycle downtrend remains unchanged. Strictly set stop-losses in operations, avoid blindly chasing highs, and focus on the effectiveness of key level breakouts.

The above is my personal view on next Monday's gold market. Thank you for your attention. I will continue to update market analysis in the future. $XAUUSD ‌