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International Crude Oil Next Week Outlook (June 30 – July 4)
Key Focus: U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls Report, ISM Manufacturing PMI, EIA Weekly Inventories, OPEC+ JMMC Signals, Actual Strait of Hormuz Transit Volume.
Weak Oscillation (Base Case): If Strait transit volumes continue to recover + no new disruptions → supply recovery expectations suppress, oil prices range-bound grinding in WTI 69.5–73 / Brent 73–76, with rebounds failing strong resistance treated as accumulation.
Short-Term Rebound Conditions: If the Strait sees renewed transit disruptions / Iran’s tough stance + U.S. inventories continue to fall → may test resistance at 72.8–75.5/76, but medium-term loose supply-demand expectations cap upside.
Breakdown Downside Risk: If OPEC+ clearly increases production significantly + strong macro data pushes the USD higher → WTI breaks below 69.5 then targets 67.5–68. Trading approach reference: Short-term: Buy low and sell high within the range, light long positions near 69.5–70 support with strict stop-loss; short if rebounding to 72.5–73 and meeting resistance.
Medium-term: Maintain a range-bound bearish bias until a valid breakout above 75–76 (Brent 78.5–79), do not chase rallies or guess reversals.
This article is based on public data compilation and analysis, for learning and communication purposes only, and does not constitute investment advice. Crude oil is highly volatile; please strictly control position size.$XTIUSD #原油
Key focus: US non-farm payrolls report, ISM manufacturing PMI, EIA weekly inventory, OPEC+ JMMC signals, actual transit volume through the Strait of Hormuz.
Weak oscillation (base case): If transit volume through the strait continues to recover + no new disruptions → supply recovery expectations suppress prices, oil prices will grind sideways in the range of WTI 69.5–73 / Brent 73–76. If the rebound fails to break through strong resistance, treat it as consolidation.
Short-term rebound conditions: If the strait faces renewed transit disruptions / Iran takes a hardline stance + US inventories continue to decline → may test resistance at 72.8–75.5/76 to the upside, but medium-term loose supply-demand expectations limit upside potential.
Downside breakout risk: If OPEC+ clearly increases production substantially + strong macroeconomic data pushes the dollar higher → WTI breaks below 69.5 then look to 67.5–68. Operational reference: Short term: buy low and sell high within the range, lightly try long positions based on support at 69.5–70, strictly stop loss; if the rebound meets resistance at 72.5–73, short-term shorting can be considered.
Medium term: maintain a oscillating bearish bias until effectively breaking through 75–76 (Brent 78.5–79). Do not chase rallies or bet on a reversal.
This article is compiled and analyzed based on public data, for learning and communication only, and does not constitute investment advice. Crude oil is highly volatile, please strictly control positions. $XTIUSD