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"IOSG: How Much Real Money Is in Bitcoin ETF Flows?" (Author: Darko)
Bitcoin ETF flows are not purely belief-driven, but largely come from hedging trades in cash-and-carry arbitrage. Research shows that -weekly flows are highly correlated with CME short positions (around 0.70), and price returns have no predictive power over inflows. Out of the cumulative ~$55 billion in inflows, the net basis trade amount is only about $1 billion, with the remainder consisting of stable directional buying, forming a long-term “mountain.” Arbitrage dominates volatility, while the real underlying assets are relatively small and continuously retreating. The correlation with Ethereum ETFs is weaker.
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