STRC is in deadlock. The flywheel has stopped.

Here's the ELI5 decision tree, so you can decide when to cut loss. The situation isn't recovering, and probably isn't at its worst yet.
> STRC is supposed to sit at $100 par
> It's lost par, now trading ~$74
> Holders are in real pain (me included)
> Not enough consensus to push it back to $100
> Nobody bids it here. Down-only for two weeks
> Way to recover? You'd need cash to defend par
> But the reserve is only $1.4B, ~10 months of dividends. And that isn't spare cash, they just rebuilt it from ~$900M by selling MSTR
> So to keep paying, they have to keep raising money
> But uh oh. mNAV is ~1.0. Not enough premium to sell and get the substantial amount
> They're already diluting MSTR holders to fund the reserve. The premium is gone
> Probably gone for a while, because MSTR holders just learned it the hard way (down ~40% in under two weeks)
> So the only big cash lever left is selling BTC
> They showed us they can sell, but will they?
> BTC already broke $60k on its own this week, reached ~$59k, lowest since Oct 2024
> Selling means breaking the 60k support zone
> So the real card here is to wait. They can sit until the market finds a new fair price
> Buying STRC at ~$73 gets you ~15.7% effective yield (11.5% on $100 par)
> Attractive? Clearly not enough, or it'd be bid. I'd want 20% before I'm confident new buyers show up
> That implies ~$57 / STRC
> From there, probably a $50-$80 range, as early buyers take the yield plus any bounce and rotate out
One date to watch: June 30 is the monthly rate reset. A bump to 12-12.5% won't fix a 27% discount when you already get 15%+ at $73. But a hold-flat could be the next leg down.
The joker card would be Saylor showing real new capital.