I am glad I did my bets on it early, because as much as I love robotics, it’s unfortunately starting to feel like a too obvious and crowded trade.

When every shitty crypto VC suddenly expands into AI and robotics, and every Tier 2 robotics company you’ve never heard of is suddenly raising a multi-billion dollar round, you know it’s time to get more careful.
Which makes the next 18 months extremely predictable:
Valuations will keep detaching completely from fundamentals. Every ex-Tesla, ex-Boston Dynamics and ex-DeepMind engineer will raise a seed round at a Series B price. The talent war will send burn rates to the moon. And 90% of these companies will ship nothing but a polished demo video.
Then the bubble bursts, a brutal consolidation follows, and the “obvious winners” getting funded at ATH valuations today will mostly not be the ones standing in 5 years. The market always overpays for the obvious and ignores the quiet teams actually solving the hard problems.
Everyone is talking about the ChatGPT moment for robotics. But the real money will be made on the Claude moment.