BIT Research: The 2028 halving is not the end; the real shakeout in Bitcoin mining is just beginning.

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The Bitcoin mining industry is currently undergoing its most complex round of structural adjustments since the protocol's inception. Although the Bitcoin price remains around $61,000 and the total network hashrate is near 1 ZH/s, close to historical highs, miners' profitability continues to deteriorate. Multiple indicators—including production costs, fee income, hashrate expansion, and industry security budgets—show that mining is currently operating near the breakeven point, and the 2028 halving could further accelerate industry consolidation.

Current data suggests that the challenges facing the mining industry stem not only from the reduced block subsidy due to the halving but also from the fact that the industry's revenue structure has yet to transition to being fee-driven. At the same time, more mining companies are shifting from being pure Bitcoin producers to infrastructure operators, energy operators, and AI/HPC computing infrastructure providers. In this process, the focus of mining competition is gradually shifting from hashrate expansion to business model upgrades.

Profitability Under Sustained Pressure: The Mining Economic Model Enters a Reassessment Phase

The PoW difficulty/issuance model shows that the lower bound of Bitcoin's current production cost is approximately $46,744. Historically, whenever the price approaches this level, marginal miners tend to exit the market, corresponding to the formation of cyclical bottoms. However, what is more noteworthy at present is that miner revenue and the Bitcoin price have begun to show a persistent divergence for the first time in history.

Data indicates that at a Bitcoin price of around $61,000, the theoretical daily revenue for all miners should be approximately $78 million, but the actual figure is only about $33 million—a 136% gap between theoretical and actual revenue. Meanwhile, the total hashrate has approached 1 ZH/s, but fee income remains low at only about $0.22 million per day, far below the roughly $9.7 million implied by historical relationships. As the halving continues to reduce new issuance, Bitcoin mining is facing growing profitability pressure.

From Mining to Infrastructure: The 2028 Halving Could Drive Industry Restructuring

In addition to declining revenue, cost pressures on mining companies are also increasing. In 2025, total Bitcoin miner revenue was approximately $17.2 billion, of which electricity costs alone accounted for about $12.3 billion, or 71.5% of total revenue; global hardware investment for mining machines was about $4.5 billion. Comprehensive calculations show that the industry's overall breakeven price is currently around $65,000, meaning that near current prices, relying solely on mining operations is already insufficient to maintain ideal profitability.

It is estimated that after the 2028 halving, the lower bound of Bitcoin's production cost will further rise to approximately $93,289, accelerating industry concentration among a small number of large, well-capitalized mining companies with diversified revenue streams. Compared to traditional miners reliant on block rewards, institutional mining companies with access to low-cost power resources, AI/HPC computing hosting businesses, and stronger balance sheets are likely to gain a stronger competitive advantage in the new cycle.

Overall, the Bitcoin mining industry is undergoing a profound transformation from a "mining business" to an "infrastructure business." As block subsidies continue to decline, relying solely on Bitcoin production is no longer sufficient to sustain long-term profitability. The industry's future will increasingly depend on diversified revenue sources such as energy management and AI/HPC computing hosting. For investors, what truly deserves attention is not just the halving itself, but which mining companies can complete the business model transformation and establish a more resilient competitive advantage in the new industry landscape.

Some of the above views come from BIT on Target. Contact us to obtain the full BIT on Target report.

Disclaimer: Market conditions involve risks, and investment should be undertaken with caution. This article does not constitute investment advice. Digital asset trading may involve significant risk and volatility. Investment decisions should be made after carefully considering personal circumstances and consulting with financial professionals. BIT is not responsible for any investment decisions made based on the information provided in this content.