The overwhelming market consensus is that the Fed will keep rates unchanged in July


The probability of keeping rates unchanged is 81%, with odds of only 1.23x; the blue curve has been steadily climbing and remaining at high levels from March to late June. Even with short-term pullbacks along the way, it quickly recovered. Funds unanimously believe that the rate adjustment will be paused in July, maintaining the current interest rate level.
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StopLossSparrow
· 1h ago
An 81% probability is basically a sure thing, the market has already priced it in, now we'll see if Powell's speech will be hawkish.
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