$BTC The market is showing divergence, so don’t rush into trades.

The BTC price action over the past two days has been a bit complicated—it can’t fall but also can’t rise. Why has BTC recovered the low of 59,000 without experiencing a significant rally? What’s the reason behind this?

Based on past logic, if BTC strongly recovers the low at 59,000, there should be a decent bounce. But can we say this recovery is strong? Honestly, no. Why? Because the 59,000 bottom has been tested three times. Although the bottom is rising, it hasn’t set a higher high. Every time it goes up, it gets pushed back down—because buying pressure lacks spot support. Looking at the CVD, I can see that while BTC oscillates and repeatedly tests the bottom, the price hasn’t set a lower low, but the spot CVD has set a lower low. This proves that spot selling pressure persists. In other words, spot has repeatedly sold off but failed to push the price down, indicating that futures contracts are bottom-fishing. Every time spot dumps near 58,000–59,000, a large number of long contracts are opened. We can confirm this through the continuously rising CVD and funding rates. According to this logic, this is a bullish divergence. But here’s a contradiction: the price hasn’t continued to set higher highs, nor has it produced a big bullish candle to break upward. This round of rebound looks more like longs taking profits and stopping out, with shorts being forced to stop loss. Once the buying pressure from longs is insufficient, it’s still easy to fall back.

This kind of rebound is unlikely to produce a significant rally, so longs need to be extra cautious. Because without spot support, what I see instead is a danger signal—possibly when long momentum dries up and shorts exit, the market may continue to head lower to test new lows.