SPX, Q, BTC Latest Technical Update


A quick update on a few charts
1. SPX (Chart 1)
Today basically confirmed yesterday's judgment.
In the first hour before the open, I expected a false drop to the 7300-7310 area, followed by a low-open rally. The actual low was 7296, a bit more than expected, but the overall script was similar.
If there are still quarter-end sell-offs to digest next Monday and Tuesday, I will focus on the descending trendline support I marked on the chart, roughly around 7290.
If it retests again and still shows the same low-open rally pattern as this Tuesday through Friday, it suggests that underlying buying support remains strong and buy orders haven't disappeared.
The biggest question now is: when will this descending channel break? I personally think it's coming soon, likely at some point next week.
2. Q (Chart 2)
Q's 1-hour chart has formed a relatively standard Falling Wedge.
If it retests the 696-700 area on Monday or Tuesday, I would be more inclined to see if this is the last support test.
Once confirmed, there is a good chance for a direct breakout above this Falling Wedge.
3. VIX
VIX dropped back to 18.4 today, down 2.54% in a single day.
Although geopolitical uncertainty remains after Friday's close, panic sentiment has not continued to spread.
4. Biotech (XBI Chart 3)
Let me share another relatively strong sector recently.
XBI has completed a Bull Flag breakout and is now up for 7 consecutive trading days.
Its overall pattern is much stronger than the broader market, with capital starting to rotate into healthcare and biotech—worth watching.
5. BTC (Chart 4)
BTC's 1-hour chart has broken above the recent downtrend line.
If it can hold, the short-term rebound is likely to continue.
For now, I'm looking at around 62000 as the first target.
Additionally, an interesting point: Bullish Divergence has appeared on the 1-hour, 2-hour, 3-hour, 4-hour, 6-hour, and 8-hour timeframes.
It's not common to see divergence across so many timeframes simultaneously, and it indicates that bearish momentum is weakening. However, the funding rate is still slightly positive. We'll see how long this rebound lasts. I estimate there will be a wide range oscillation between 59000 and 65000 for about 1-2 months, whipsawing positions before a final drop to form a cycle bottom. The 50000-60000 range is a good level for dollar-cost averaging and can be part of asset allocation. But the core focus remains on AI.
Summary
My view hasn't changed much. SPX and Q are still within their descending channels, but getting closer to breakout points. If Monday and Tuesday see another low open due to quarter-end selling or news, followed by a low-open rally, I would take that as a sign that buying pressure remains strong.
SPX1.52%
BTC-0.42%
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