#0成本拿2股SK海力士 Short-term trend (1-3 months, Q3 2026): Wide consolidation at highs, first digest profit-taking then push for catalyst-driven rally

Overall assessment

First pull back and build momentum (retest the 220-2.4M Korean won support zone), then leverage Q2 earnings and July U.S. stock ADR listing for a second rally. Overall, large ups and small downs, with violent volatility (daily ±5%–12% normalized).

1. Reason for Pullback

The prior 10x surge in one year has accumulated massive profit-taking positions. Global tech stocks collectively see a retreat in sentiment, with short-term funds cashing out. The short-term price increase expectations for memory have been partially priced in, lacking immediate new positive catalysts.

2. Core Upward Catalysts (Determining Rebound Strength)

◦ July U.S. stock ADR official listing: HSBC predicts a 20% valuation premium, with U.S. passive ETFs and sovereign funds investing in bulk, closing the long-term valuation discount compared to Micron.

◦ Q2 earnings release: Institutions unanimously expect revenue and HBM profits to hit new highs, with DRAM/NAND spot prices continuing to rise month-over-month (Nomura raises Q3 DRAM sequential price increase to 24%). Earnings delivery boosts sentiment again.

◦ Implementation of a trillion Korean won level share buyback and dividend shareholder return program further supports the stock price.

3. Short-term Institutional Target Range

After consolidation and upward movement, aims for 3.6-4 million Korean won (HSBC target 4 million, Daiwa target 3.6 million). Probability of successfully breaking the previous high of 2.99M Korean won is high, but it is difficult to see a one-sided, reckless surge.