CLARITY Act Odds Fall to 50% as Senate Calendar Puts Crypto Bill at Risk: Galaxy Research

Senate timing constraints have weakened the CLARITY Act’s outlook as lawmakers face a crowded agenda before the August recess. Galaxy Digital’s research lowered its 2026 passage estimate to a 50-50 chance, citing no floor date, no motion to proceed, and no unified committee text.

Key Takeaways:

• • Senate delays have reduced confidence in the CLARITY Act’s chances of becoming law.
• • Galaxy Digital now sees passage odds at 50-50 amid limited public progress in negotiations.
• • Leadership action in July could revive momentum, while continued silence may weaken prospects.

Senate Calendar Pressures Weigh on CLARITY Act Passage Outlook

Senate scheduling pressure has narrowed the CLARITY Act’s path as Senate floor time grows more crowded ahead of the August recess. Alex Thorn, Managing Director and Head of Firmwide Research at Galaxy Digital, published a research note on June 26, lowering his 2026 passage estimate to 50-50.

Legislation has remained on the Senate Legislative Calendar as item No. 423 since June 1, after the Senate Banking Committee approved it 15-9 on May 14. No floor date has been announced, no motion to proceed has been scheduled, and no unified Banking-Agriculture text has been released.

Thorn revealed:

“We are lowering our estimate that the CLARITY Act becomes law in 2026 to 50-50, down from 60% on June 5.”

Staff-level talks continue between the Senate Banking and Agriculture committees, with some indications of constructive negotiations. Still, there has been no public announcement of agreement on a combined bill, and lawmakers have not signaled a floor timeline.

Ethics provisions remain a central unresolved issue after Senator Chris Van Hollen (D-MD) saw his conflict-of-interest amendment fail 11-13 in committee. Senators Ruben Gallego (D-AZ) and Cory Booker (D-NJ) continue to seek enforceable standards, while illicit-finance hawks want changes to developer-protection language.

Trump’s Housing Bill Standoff Further Crowds Senate Schedule

Senate competition intensified after President Donald Trump said June 24 that he would not sign a bipartisan housing bill unless Congress passed the SAVE Act, a proof-of-citizenship elections bill. Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) has said the SAVE Act lacks the votes to pass the Senate.

Housing legislation had already passed the House 358-32 and the Senate 85-5, but Thorn described Trump’s condition as another leadership-consuming fight. The dispute joins a crowded agenda as lawmakers approach the scheduled August recess.

Thorn said:

“A scheduling announcement in the next two weeks would likely push us back toward 60% or higher. Continued silence into mid-July would push us lower.”

Congress also faces other time-sensitive priorities. A bipartisan proposal from Senators Chuck Grassley (R-IA), Tom Cotton (R-AR), and Mark Warner (D-VA) to restore Section 702 surveillance authorities still requires Senate floor time, while lawmakers must also consider the fiscal 2027 National Defense Authorization Act before the recess.

Thorn said his outlook would improve if Senate committees publicly agreed on combined legislative text, negotiators resolved outstanding ethics and Blockchain Regulatory Certainty Act issues, and Senate leadership committed floor time in July. He added that he continues to expect at least two Republican no votes from Senators Josh Hawley (R-MO) and Rand Paul (R-KY).