#分享我的交易. As of around 12:00 Beijing time, about 4 hours remain until the 16:00 quarterly options expiry. ETH is currently in the initial post-expiry repair phase, with the current price oscillating in the $1,545 - $1,578 range.

📊 Current Market Characteristics

· Expiry impact: Approximately 939,000 ETH options (with a notional value of $2.3 billion) expired at 16:00. The biggest pain point is $2,200, which is far above the current price. This means most call options have gone to zero, and the hedging sell pressure from market makers has essentially been released before expiry.
· Whale movements: Monitoring indicates that a whale sold 464 BTC near the $1,511 low, and then switched to buying 17,750 ETH. This has been partially interpreted as a bargain-hunting signal.
· Technicals: The 4-hour MACD shows a bearish-to-bullish divergence at the bottom (the price makes a new low, but momentum does not follow). This suggests a possible short-term rebound, but the overall trend remains weak. The daily moving averages are arranged bearishly (MA7 < MA30 < MA120).
· Volume: When the price fell to $1,512, it was accompanied by increased-volume panic selling, but during the rebound phase, volume declined. This indicates that buy-side support is insufficient.

🎯 Key Price Levels for the Next 4 Hours

· Resistance Above: $1,557-$1,564 (MA5/MA10 dense zone) → $1,583-$1,602 (MA30 and prior trading range) → $1,630-$1,651 (24-hour high and short liquidation trigger)
· Support Below: $1,520-$1,530 (first support zone) → $1,497-$1,500 (long liquidation trigger; breaking below may trigger $763 million in long liquidations) → $1,480-$1,450 (key bottom)

⚠️ Risk Warning

The end of expiry does not mean an immediate surge. Data shows ETH may see repeated swings within the $1,500-$1,600 range. Uncertainty remains high over the next few hours. It is recommended to strictly control position sizes, avoid high leverage, and wait until the direction is clear before making decisions. The analysis above is based on publicly available market data and does not constitute investment advice—please bear your own risk.