On June 27, Morgan Stanley maintained its baseline forecast that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged within the year, but warned that if the unemployment rate falls below 4% or inflation remains persistently high, this judgment would be forced to shift toward raising rates. Analyst Michael Gapen noted in a client report that data since the June FOMC meeting has made the bank "slightly more comfortable" with its "no rate hike" baseline — oil prices have fallen following the signing of the U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding, and the pass-through effect of tariffs is expected to be peaking. Morgan Stanley forecasts fourth-quarter headline and core PCE inflation at 3.2% and 3.0%, respectively, well below the median expectations of FOMC participants. On the labor market front, Morgan Stanley expects monthly job additions of 50,000 to 60k during the summer, sufficient to keep the unemployment rate roughly flat.

However, Gapen warned that if the unemployment rate falls below 4.0%, the Fed may see the risk of an overheating labor market as sufficient to support a rate hike; if monthly core inflation remains at 0.3% or above, or if the Middle East conflict escalates again, the view would also be reassessed. This assessment comes as Brent crude has fallen to around $72.6, with the market closely watching subsequent employment and inflation data to calibrate policy expectations for the Fed under Warsh's leadership.#0成本拿2股SK海力士