Bitcoin is currently stumping everyone: after more than a decade of using the four-year cycle, will it completely fail?

Bitcoin is now priced at roughly $60k, down more than half compared to its peak of $126k last October.

The entire market is in panic. Retail investors are terrified, and institutions have been pulling out money aggressively for six consecutive weeks.

Bitcoin ETFs have seen cumulative redemptions of nearly $6 billion. Since the launch of spot ETFs, there has never been such a large-scale, prolonged capital exodus.

Everyone in the crypto space is now fixated on one thing: Has the previously foolproof Bitcoin four-year halving cycle become obsolete?

The old rule was simple: a four-year cycle — a slow rise before the halving, a bull run after the halving, and then a sharp correction when the peak is reached.

But this cycle is clearly different. With a large number of institutions entering the market, there is more money, and global policies and the interest rate environment have all changed.

Some believe that the massive funds held by institutions have directly disrupted the original rhythm of rises and falls, rendering the old four-year cycle logic completely invalid.

But analysts have a different view. They say the underlying cycle hasn't changed; institutions have only amplified the magnitude of the swings. What we're seeing now is just a normal deep correction after a bull market.

Currently, the evidence for bullish and bearish positions is equally balanced. Bears point to sustained capital outflows, a halved coin price, and extreme market panic. Bulls still firmly believe that the four-year cycle will not easily become invalid and are waiting for the market to bottom out and rebound.

Where Bitcoin goes next comes down to one key point: Can the long-standing four-year cycle of rises and falls still control market trends?

$BTC ‌#美光市值超越Meta跻身全美前十 #比特币四年周期将改变？