Wall Street News Breakfast FM-Radio | June 27, 2026

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Market Overview

The S&P 500 closed nearly flat on Friday, while the S&P 500 Equal Weight Index hit a record high. The Nasdaq fell 0.24%, marking its fifth consecutive decline. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index plunged 5.3% on Friday, down nearly 8% for the week.

The Magnificent Seven tech stocks outperformed the broader market overall on Friday, with Microsoft and Apple, which fell yesterday, strengthening today, rising 5.7% and over 3%, respectively. For the week, the Magnificent Seven as a group slumped about 6%, significantly underperforming the S&P 493 Index, which finished flat for the week. The divergence between the two groups was the most pronounced since July 2024.

Micron Technology fell 6.67%. ON Semiconductor plunged 24%. Oracle posted its largest weekly decline since 2001.

The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell 2 basis points on Friday to 4.37%, down over 10 basis points for the week. The 2-year Treasury yield fell 3 basis points, down 8.8 basis points for the week.

The dollar reversed from its lows but still fell 0.15%. It rose and then fell for the week, gaining 0.57% overall, holding above the 101 mark. Bitcoin fluctuated and strengthened 0.4% during the day, struggling near the $60k level; Solana surged 10% in the last 24 hours. Spot gold fell then rose during the day, once up 2.8% from its intraday low, but fell 1.68% for the week. Silver rebounded 2% intraday, but fell 9.5% for the week.

New York oil prices fell below $70 for the first time since the U.S.-Iran conflict. WTI crude once fell nearly 4%, found support at the 200-day moving average, and fell 8% for the week. After the U.S. stock market closed, reports emerged that the U.S. military attacked the Strait of Hormuz area, causing oil prices to tick higher.

During Asian hours, the ChiNext fell over 4%, with more than 4,600 stocks declining across the market. Computing hardware stocks saw broad adjustments, while glass substrate stocks bucked the trend and surged. The Hang Seng Tech Index fell another 3%, with tech and internet stocks generally declining.

Highlights

> China > > China and the EU are holding intensive trade consultations. The EU's lack of sincerity may trigger a sharp rise in Sino-EU economic and trade frictions. > > A batch of fund managers who "stood in the light" are tightening purchase limits. > > Overseas > > The U.S. military opened fire for the first time after signing the U.S.-Iran agreement, claiming it conducted airstrikes on Iran in response to an attack on a merchant ship in Hormuz. Iran says it foiled the U.S. attack and will respond severely. Trump accused Iran of violating the ceasefire agreement, calling the drone attack on a cargo ship in Hormuz "stupid," and threatened to impose 100% tariffs in retaliation for digital services taxes. Lebanon, Israel, and the U.S. reached a three-party framework agreement. Israeli PM: Until Hezbollah is disarmed, the IDF will remain in a "security zone" in southern Lebanon. > > One of Warsh's first major appointments: Appointing two Federal Reserve economists as advisors, focusing on interest rate research. Federal Reserve's Kashkari switches from dovish to hawkish: Inflation is high, expects one rate hike this year. > > OpenAI released the GPT-5.6 series of models, limited release at the request of the U.S. government, stating it should not become the long-term default approach. > > Report: U.S. has approved Anthropic's strongest model, allowing over 100 institutions to use it. > > OpenAI's delayed IPO hits SoftBank hard, $65 billion exposure faces liquidity test, shares plunge 13% in largest drop in two years. > > SpaceX's $25 billion new bond faces rare sell-off, spreads widen sharply. The "faith" in tech giants falters in the bond market.

Market Close

U.S. and European stock markets: S&P 500 down 0.05% at 7354.02 points. Dow down 0.09% at 51876.11 points. Nasdaq down 0.24% at 25297.618 points. This week, the S&P 500 fell about 1.9%, the Dow rose about 0.4% for a three-week winning streak, and the Nasdaq fell about 4.4%.

A-shares: Shanghai Composite closed at 4027.26 points, down 2.26%. Shenzhen Component Index closed at 15782.22 points, down 3.44%. ChiNext Index closed at 4194.21 points, down 4.07%.

Bonds: The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell 2 basis points on Friday to 4.37%, down over 10 basis points for the week. The 2-year Treasury yield fell 3 basis points, down 8.8 basis points for the week.

Commodities: WTI August crude futures fell 3.74% to $69.23/barrel, down 9.55% for the week. Brent July crude futures fell 4.34% to $71.99/barrel, down 9.85% for the week. Spot gold rose 1.35% to $4081.02/oz, down 1.90% for the week. Spot silver rose 1.63% to $58.77/oz, down 9.49% for the week.

Details

Global Highlights

China

China and the EU are holding intensive trade consultations. The EU's lack of sincerity may trigger a sharp rise in Sino-EU economic and trade frictions. According to Global Times, the EU lacks sincerity in addressing China's concerns. For example, no new progress has been made in the specific negotiations on price commitments for Chinese electric vehicles. In terms of export controls, the EU only requires China to address its concerns about rare earths but has made no progress in resolving specific cases of obstacles to China's imports from the EU.

A batch of fund managers who "stood in the light" are tightening purchase limits! Several funds managed by well-known fund manager Jin Zicai have announced they are "closing their doors to guests." Among them, the purchase limits for products such as Caitong Value Momentum Hybrid, Caitong Quality Selection Hybrid, Caitong Integrated Circuit Industry Stock, and Caitong Growth Preferred Hybrid have been adjusted from 500 yuan three days ago to 100 yuan. Industry insiders say that the intensive purchase restrictions by high-performing "light chasers" are essentially a proactive risk management measure, both to protect the interests of existing holders and to reflect the fund company's cautious attitude towards short-term market risks.

Overseas

The U.S. military opened fire for the first time after signing the U.S.-Iran agreement, claiming it conducted airstrikes on Iran in response to an attack on a merchant ship in Hormuz. Iran says it foiled the U.S. attack and will respond severely. The U.S. military claimed that Iran's attack on the merchant ship was an obvious violation of the ceasefire agreement and that the U.S. military would continue to support the safe passage of merchant ships to ensure the "full and effective" implementation of the agreement. Crude oil narrowed its decline, with WTI falling less than 3%. Iranian media reported an explosion at the dock in the southern port city of Sirik on Friday evening. The Iranian military said it would respond quickly and decisively to the U.S. attack, and "any new foolish act" would face a severe response.

Trump accused Iran of violating the ceasefire agreement, calling the drone attack on a cargo ship in Hormuz "stupid," and threatened to impose 100% tariffs in retaliation for digital services taxes. Trump said a cargo ship sailing near the Strait of Hormuz was attacked by four drones that day, one of which struck the hull, and the other three were shot down by the U.S. military; the U.S. will continue to maintain navigation security in the strait; and will impose 100% tariffs on any country that imposes digital services taxes on U.S. companies, with this tariff overriding relevant trade agreements.

Lebanon, Israel, and the U.S. reached a three-party framework agreement. Israeli PM: Until Hezbollah is disarmed, the IDF will remain in a "security zone" in southern Lebanon. An Israeli official said that within the "security zone," the IDF will retain freedom of military action and can take action at any time to eliminate potential security threats; Israel and Lebanon agreed that in two areas outside the "security zone," Israel will gradually withdraw its troops and the Lebanese government forces will take control. Rubio said that a U.S.-promoted military coordination group was established to assist in implementing the three-party framework agreement. Lebanese President: Reaching the framework agreement is the first step towards restoring Lebanon's sovereignty.

Iran said that shipping in Hormuz will be managed according to the U.S.-Iran memorandum, warning that bypassing Iran's arrangements cannot guarantee safety, and denied setting up a U.S.-Iran Strait communication hotline. WTI fell nearly 5% and Brent fell over 5% during the session. Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister said that safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz requires Iranian coordination. Iranian media reported that three oil tankers attempted to pass through the Strait of Hormuz without authorization and were turned back; the U.S.-Iran communication hotline was intended to prevent accidental events from leading to military escalation. Iran's military spokesman later said that the news of setting up a communication hotline between Iran and the U.S. was completely fabricated.

Oman was reported to be studying the Malacca Strait management model, informing allies that ships crossing the Strait of Hormuz may have to pay a fee. According to reports, Oman has told European officials that the Strait of Hormuz can no longer return to its pre-war state, and future transit ships may need to pay certain fees. If transit fees are imposed, commodity traders will face an additional tens of billions of dollars in costs each year. Most countries believe ships should pass through Hormuz freely without paying fees. According to Iranian media, the heads of customs in Iran and Oman proposed establishing a joint committee to implement the customs agreement.

One of Warsh's first major appointments: Appointing two Federal Reserve economists as advisors, focusing on interest rate research. "New Fed Whisperer" Nick Timiraos wrote that new Fed Chair Warsh promoted two veteran economists, Covitz and Engstrom, who have served for nearly three decades, to core advisory roles. Their research focuses on financial stability, credit markets, monetary policy, etc. They have jointly studied the supply shock and fiscal deficit logic behind the rising long-term U.S. Treasury yields.

Federal Reserve's Kashkari switches from dovish to hawkish: Inflation is high, expects one rate hike this year. Neel Kashkari, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, said that due to signs of broader inflation spreading, he has adjusted his interest rate expectation for this year to one rate hike. He also pointed out that the U.S.-Iran conflict and the AI boom are complicating the fight against inflation. It should be noted that in March he expected one rate cut this year.

OpenAI released the GPT-5.6 series of models, limited release at the request of the U.S. government, stating it should not become the long-term default approach. The GPT-5.6 series includes the flagship version Sol, Terra which balances efficiency and daily work, and Luna which is fast and low-priced. The highest-priced Sol charges $5 per million input tokens and $30 per million output tokens, only about half the price of Anthropic's Fable 5 model. OpenAI stated that GPT-5.6 is currently only available for preview to a limited number of trusted partners, with plans for a full launch in the coming weeks. Codex and ChatGPT will be upgraded to GPT-5.6, and OpenAI hopes to work with the government to establish a repeatable model release process.

Report: U.S. has approved Anthropic's strongest model, allowing over 100 institutions to use it. According to media reports, the U.S. government lifted restrictions on Anthropic's powerful AI model Claude Mythos 5 on Friday, allowing the company to provide the model to more than 100 U.S. institutions, including large enterprises and government agencies. Whether Fable5 has been declassified has not been mentioned.

OpenAI's delayed IPO hits SoftBank hard, $65 billion exposure faces liquidity test, shares plunge 13% in largest drop in two years. Under the investment plan, SoftBank's investment in OpenAI will reach $65 billion by October this year. The market had previously expected that OpenAI's IPO would bring substantial returns to SoftBank. Reports yesterday that OpenAI might delay its IPO until 2027 caused SoftBank's shares to plummet 13% on Friday, its largest single-day drop since August 2024.

Rising memory prices are eating into terminal demand! Apple's price hikes + OpenAI's delayed IPO trigger a collapse in Asian chip stocks. Apple and Microsoft both announced price hikes on Thursday due to storage shortages, coupled with OpenAI considering delaying its IPO, leading to a fierce sell-off in Asian tech stocks on Friday. The market is reassessing the previous trading logic: is the profit expansion of chip stocks driven by rising memory prices coming at the cost of suppressing terminal consumer demand? The AI hardware investment narrative faces new tests.

• Apple's price hike — the last straw breaking the AI storage bubble? The reason Apple's price hike could trigger a circuit breaker in Korean stocks is precisely because it hit the weakest link in the AI storage narrative: it's not that AI doesn't need storage, but the market is starting to reprice "how much storage AI needs and how much someone is willing to pay for it."

Not just Apple, Huaqiangbei is also seeing a "chorus of price increases": prices for computers, tablets, and mobile phones are all moving up. According to Shanghai Securities News, brands such as Apple, Huawei, Lenovo, and Honor have collectively raised prices, with terminal prices for computers, tablets, and mobile phones in Huaqiangbei all moving up. The main reason is the rising cost of core hardware, with memory and SSD prices nearly doubling from their lows last year. Brand manufacturers are adopting strategies such as direct price increases, reducing promotions, and adjusting configurations, while distributors are hedging risks by stocking up in advance.

• iPhones haven't raised prices yet, but they won't be far behind. Delaying iPhone price hikes is intended to maintain demand stability for Apple's core product line — on one hand, to avoid the impact of price increases on revenue from core products like the iPhone, and on the other hand, to offset the negative impact of rising material costs on gross margins through price increases on product lines like Mac and iPad. Apple has already left a clear expectation in its price hike statement: "It has reached a point where we need to start raising prices on many products."

An unprecedented phenomenon in 40 years! Soaring data center and memory costs are driving the third wave of inflation. AI infrastructure investment is becoming a new driver of inflation. The expansion of data centers is causing costs for memory, electricity, and labor to rise across the board, transmitting to consumer electronics, energy, and wages. Tech companies like Apple are collectively raising prices, with global capital expenditure potentially reaching trillions of dollars. Economists warn that this AI-driven price pressure could last for several years, and the dividend of deflation is still far off.

• Cooling U.S. inflation is not that simple: Even as oil prices fall, "Apples" are still raising prices. As oil prices retreat, Apple is raising prices — U.S. inflation is much more stubborn than imagined. The May PCE rose 4.1% year-over-year, double the Fed's 2% target; even excluding energy, core PCE is still 3.4%. The pass-through of tariff costs, the explosion in AI chip demand, sustained consumer resilience... multiple factors combined make inflation's "stickiness" difficult to eliminate.
• When AI becomes the engine of inflation: a transmission chain the central bank has never seen before. The Fed holds the interest rate lever, but it can't reach the wafer fab.

SpaceX's $25 billion new bond faces rare sell-off, spreads widen sharply. The "faith" in tech giants falters in the bond market. SpaceX's newly issued $25 billion bond faced a rare sell-off in the secondary market, with credit spreads rapidly widening and financing costs rising, with some gains nearly erased. The concentrated withdrawal of fast money, coupled with equity-side volatility and negative cash flow concerns, triggered active CDS trading and credit repricing. The market is beginning to reassess the risk premium on tech giant debt, and the tech bond sector faces a structural revaluation.

Research Picks

Bank of America: Watch these two key levels, which could be the catalyst for a summer sell-off. BofA warns that the market is extremely optimistic, but two key levels must be watched: the "Magnificent Seven" ETF (MAGS) falling below 60 and the Australian Dollar/Japanese Yen (AUDJPY) falling below 110. Once these levels are breached, it could trigger a concentrated sell-off in risk assets this summer. Meanwhile, historically large fund outflows have occurred in U.S. stocks and the tech sector, with market sentiment and fund structure shifting simultaneously, and the potential for a correction is rapidly accumulating.

Falling below 4000, gold is experiencing a "collapse of faith." The gold myth is crumbling — from $5,595 to $3,978 in five months, a decline of 28.9%, surpassing the entire 2013 decline. The Fed's hawkish turn, the dollar surging to a one-year high, and the zeroing out of the Iran geopolitical premium — three forces working in sync. Goldman Sachs and Deutsche Bank collectively cut price targets, a death cross is about to form, and 298 tons of ETF holdings are underwater. Gold is not dead, but it has gone from "it will go up no matter what" to "needing a reason to go up."

• CICC: Is the gold bull market over? Gold has retraced over 25% from its March peak of $5,321/oz. The market blames the U.S.-Iran conflict for boosting inflation and Warsh's hawkish debut. However, CICC research points out that this round of inflation is solely driven by oil prices and may have peaked in summer as the U.S.-Iran situation eases; Warsh's five working group reforms are actually institutional groundwork for future rate cuts, and the so-called "hawkish turn" may be a misinterpretation. The gold bull market is not over; the turning point is approaching.

Is "K-shaped divergence" the fate of "technological revolution"? Reviewing five technological cycles since 1771, CSCI found that K-shaped divergence is a common pattern during the "introduction period" of each technological revolution, not a unique feature of the current AI era. In the introduction period, the benefits of technology almost entirely flow to capital: during the era of the loom, workers' real incomes stagnated; in the era of automobiles and oil, the top 1% of the population held nearly half of the nation's net wealth by 1929; capital markets diverged simultaneously. History shows that only after institutional restructuring can the benefits of technology truly become inclusive.

Domestic Companies

Tesla FSD fully transitions from purchase to subscription model! The buyout version in Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan will be removed after June 30, with no clear timetable for the mainland. Regarding whether the subscription model will be implemented in the mainland Chinese market, a Tesla China insider only said, "No more information to share." Notably, although the Chinese market has been included by Tesla in the FSD availability list, it has not yet been fully activated for use, and users still need to spend 64k yuan to purchase the buyout version. Tesla CFO Vaibhav Taneja stated that they hope FSD will obtain a full commercial license in the Chinese market by the third quarter of 2026.

UBS backs Lao Feng Xiang: Market concerns about competitive threats may be exaggerated; followers' sales are only 4% of its own. UBS believes that Lao Feng Xiang's stock price has already fully reflected sales pressure, but improvements in gross margin and a cash flow inflection point are undervalued. Surveys show a moderate competitive landscape, with followers' size only about 4%. Coupled with price increases and falling gold prices, the company's gross margin could improve to about 41% in 2026, with potentially high earnings growth. Valuation is at historical lows, with free cash flow turning positive and a high dividend yield of about 11% forming core support.

Overseas Macroeconomics

U.S. tech stocks are under collective pressure. Is the market replaying the DeepSeek shock script? Jefferies strategists pointed out that the GLM5.2 model launched by Zhipu AI "has performance almost comparable to Anthropic, but at a quarter of the cost per token," characterizing the past week as "another DeepSeek moment." Analysis indicates that low-cost AI models will influence enterprise customer choices while shaking the investment logic of AI infrastructure.

MAG7 "faith" is loosening: Tech giants' technicals show sharp divergence, U.S. capital is accelerating towards value pockets. The unified trading theme of MAG7 is rapidly unraveling, with significant outflows from high-valuation tech giants. Apple, Amazon, and Microsoft face the heaviest technical pressure, with Apple approaching the key support level of $270, Amazon breaking below the 200-day moving average, and Microsoft's RSI falling into oversold territory. Nvidia has been in a long-term consolidation, indicating cooling AI trading enthusiasm, while Google is relatively stable, and Tesla maintains mean-reversion characteristics. Sector correlation is declining, and signs of crowded trade unwinding continue to strengthen.

AI cost biting terminals and IPO delay resonate: The crowded compute trade faces a revaluation moment. The crowded AI hardware and semiconductor trade faces revaluation: soaring memory costs trigger terminal price hikes and demand concerns, with Apple's market cap evaporating over $260 billion on Thursday and dragging down Asian chip stocks; meanwhile, OpenAI's delayed IPO hits AI sentiment, with SoftBank's slump exacerbating the sell-off. The market begins to question AI capital expenditure and monetization assumptions, with capital rapidly exiting the AI chain.

The U.S.-Iran agreement lowers oil prices, transmitting to the terminal: June Michigan consumer confidence rebounds from the bottom, but remains at historical lows. The University of Michigan reported on Friday that the final consumer confidence index for June rose to 49.5, higher than the historical low of 44.8 set in May and better than the preliminary reading, but still the second lowest level since records began in the 1970s. In recent weeks, the average price of gasoline in the U.S. has fallen by more than 60 cents per gallon, becoming the main driver of this confidence rebound.

Fed independence under renewed pressure: Atlanta Fed president selection deadlocked, White House seeks to intervene. "New Fed Whisperer" Nick Timiraos wrote that the selection of the Atlanta Fed president has been deadlocked for seven months, and this position will have voting rights on the FOMC next year. Meanwhile, White House advisors, who have no formal authority to intervene, are trying to influence the appointment, pushing for a pro-government candidate, raising renewed concerns about the Fed's political independence.

Tokyo CPI regains upward momentum, expectations for another BOJ rate hike within the year heat up. Tokyo's June core CPI rose to 1.6% for the first time in eight months, and the core indicator excluding fresh food and energy rose to 1.9%. BOJ Governor Ueda reiterated his stance on rate hikes, with hawkish members calling for rate hikes every few months. The July 31 policy decision is under close scrutiny. 90% of economists expect another rate hike within the year, and this data further consolidates market expectations for the BOJ's tightening path.

Overseas Companies

Russell Index undergoes major rebalancing on Friday: Nvidia tops, SpaceX enters. The Russell Index officially rebalanced after the U.S. market close on Friday. Nvidia will replace Apple as the largest weight in the Russell 1000 Index, with AI concept companies such as SpaceX and CoreWeave also being added simultaneously. This adjustment coincides with the quarter-end pension rebalancing window, coupled with the need for passive funds tracking the index to complete rebalancing, which is expected to significantly amplify volatility at the close due to dual fund flows.

AI employment impact has already shown initial cracks. Goldman Sachs: 15 million U.S. workers may face job displacement. Goldman Sachs' latest AI employment report sends a warning signal: The impact of AI has moved from prediction to reality. The report states that employment in high-penetration industries is contracting, AI-related layoffs are increasing, and the cost of programming agents is already lower than that of human developers. In the future, about 15 million U.S. jobs could face displacement. The key is whether the rate of new job creation can outpace the pace of AI replacement.

Apple's M7 card exposed: Memory bandwidth surges 56%, breaking through the on-device AI bottleneck, the ecosystem of 2.5 billion devices faces computational restructuring. Apple plans to launch the M7 base chip in 2027, with unified memory bandwidth increased by 56% over the M5, focusing on enhancing on-device AI inference capabilities in basic models to compensate for performance shortcomings. This move signals that Apple Intelligence will fully penetrate the 2.5 billion device ecosystem, potentially reshaping the upgrade cycle and AI ecosystem, and driving revaluation of supply chain demand for high-bandwidth memory.

Apple loses another general! Report: Vision Pro and smart glasses head jumps to OpenAI. According to media reports, Paul Meade, the top executive in charge of Apple's Vision Pro and smart glasses business, will leave Apple this week to join OpenAI. Smart glasses are seen as Apple's key product to enter the AI wearable space and compete with Meta. After the news was announced, it caused Apple's stock price to narrow its intraday gains on Friday, but the rally later resumed, closing up 3.14%. Previously, Apple's CEO transition triggered a top-level restructuring, with Meade and several other hardware executives being downgraded.

The value of Micron's long-term agreements: Customers first put down $22 billion, contracts non-cancellable, locking in the "most profitable" gross margin ever! Micron's 16 SCA long-term agreements lock in $22 billion in customer deposits. The gross margin corresponding to the agreed floor prices will far exceed the historical peak of 62%, and the minimum revenue commitments from 14 agreements total approximately $100 billion. Analyst Harlan Sur says this means Micron has transformed from a cyclical commodity supplier to a long-term supplier with multi-year contract protection and downside hedges for both revenue and profits. Major Wall Street banks have collectively raised their target prices.

Over 300 local bans across the U.S. are bearing down, AI data center expansion faces a chill from public opinion. Against the expansion of AI data centers, more than 300 local governments across the U.S. have imposed new construction bans or suspended approvals, with over 275 new additions in 2026 alone. Public concerns about high electricity consumption, high water usage, and community pressure are gradually overshadowing their economic value. Although some projects bring tax benefits, the growing wave of opposition is subjecting the "social license" of the AI industry to severe tests, with infrastructure expansion evolving from a capital issue into a public policy and public opinion game.

Fleeing the "Korea discount": After SK Hynix, is Samsung also planning to list in the U.S.? South Korea's semiconductor twin giants are accelerating their layout in the U.S. capital market, hoping to eliminate the "Korea discount" by attracting global passive capital inflows. Following SK Hynix's announcement of listing ADRs on Nasdaq next month, rumors of Samsung Electronics listing in the U.S. are also rapidly fermenting within the Korean securities industry. The level of attention from overseas investors far exceeds expectations, and the market widely views it as a strong catalyst for driving up the stock price.

Prediction platform Polymarket surpasses $1 billion in annualized revenue, U.S. market trading volume more than triples in one month. The daily trading volume on Polymarket's U.S. trading platform has climbed from about $50 million in mid-May to over $200 million on June 20. The start of the FIFA World Cup has driven Polymarket's weekly trading volume to an all-time high.

Risk Warning and Disclaimer

        The market carries risks. Investment should be cautious. This article does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it consider the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or needs of individual users. Users should consider whether any opinions, views, or conclusions in this article are appropriate for their particular circumstances. Investment based on this is at your own risk.