The central point here is the capital outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs. These ETFs (such as those launched in the United States in 2024, for example iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT)) play a major role today: they represent an institutional entry point. When flows turn negative, it means institutional investors are reducing their exposure, which removes an important source of demand.

At the same time, the rise in U.S. interest rates directly weighs on risk assets. When rates increase, bonds become more attractive, and assets like Bitcoin—which is often perceived as “high risk”—see unfavorable arbitrage.

Technically and psychologically, staying “stuck below key levels” also means the market lacks a bullish catalyst. As long as buyers do not regain control (via ETFs or spot), the market tends to move into consolidation or decline.

In summary:

Negative ETF flows = declining institutional demand

High rates = an unfavorable macro environment

Lack of momentum = persistent technical pressure