😤 Just saw a piece of news in the early morning, and it instantly woke me up.

Fed's Kashkari said they expect one rate hike in 2026. Wait, weren't they talking about rate cuts before? Now it's suddenly a rate hike 🌚?

PCE year-over-year rate for May was 4.1%, and prices have exceeded the 2% target for a full five years now. Inflation—once it sticks, you can't shake it off.

Then I took a look at the market.

$BTC ‌ just broke through $60,000, $ETH ‌ is around $1,584. Looks good, right? But look at the daily chart—do you even know where BTC came down from recently? ETH has fallen even more from its highs. On the technical side, the MACD just showed a slight golden cross signal, and the RSI is still hanging around 50. At this level, are you saying it's bottomed? I'm not buying it.

Let me share a few real situations I've seen:

① $1 billion in BTC options just expired on Deribit. The market is usually not calm around such massive deliveries.

② Polymarket data shows a 99% probability that BTC will hold above $54,000 today. The market consensus on $54,000 as a bottom is unusually strong—but such consensus can sometimes be a signal in itself.

③ On the ETF side, we just saw a wave of capital outflows a few days ago. Are institutions running away or rebalancing? Hard to tell right now.

My honest opinion:

At this level, I'd call it a "grinding bottom," not a "golden bottom."

It's safer to observe in batches rather than going all-in at once. If BTC can really hold the $54,000-$58,000 range without breaking, it means there is indeed support below. For ETH, keep an eye on the $1,500 level; if it breaks, calculate the downside yourself. Don't ask me whether to buy—the answer is: in batches, control your position, and wait for confirmation.

The above is just my personal observation and does not constitute any advice. The market carries risks, and decisions are yours.

What do you think—has it bottomed, or is it heading lower? Share your thoughts in the comments 👇