A weak setup is already in place; a rebound is a point to short.

Last night, global risk assets staged a textbook “buy the rumor, sell the news” harvesting rally!

Memory giant Micron Technology released explosive earnings: revenue surged 346% year over year, gross margin was nearing 85%, and its performance guidance fully exceeded market expectations—this is the strongest ultimate positive catalyst for this current AI technology chain and risk assets. At the initial moment the news hit the market, Nasdaq futures surged straight up and the technology sector collectively spiked, and bullish sentiment in the market was instantly maxed out—but the moment the positive catalyst lands, it becomes the biggest negative!

After U.S. stocks officially opened, markets opened higher across the board and then slipped, with heavy volume “flooding out.” Profit-taking from high levels was dumped in a concentrated wave; tech heavyweight names kept weakening, fully declaring that this round of short-term cyclical positive catalysts has been completely exhausted, and that all incremental long logic has been wiped to zero!

Right now, the market is trading expectations—not realized facts! All the AI storage and technology-loosening premium that was priced in early are completely brought to an end the moment earnings are released. Coupled with Treasury yields continuing to trade at high levels and oscillate, and the U.S. dollar’s resilience staying strong and unchanged, the environment of high interest rates suppressing everything shows no sign of easing at all. The bearish pressure logic on non-interest-bearing crypto assets continues to strengthen; the macro picture has already formed an overall bearish pattern!

This round of the “big pie” rebound has relied throughout on the sentiment repair of U.S. tech stocks and the support from AI cyclical premium. Now, with the triple bearish convergence of “good news already used up + U.S. stocks weakening + liquidity tightening,” the bulls have absolutely no upward continuation momentum!

Even on the technical front, the bears fully control the tempo:
Repeated attempts to push higher from high levels have failed; daily volume keeps declining. After multiple tests that probed resistance and then pulled back, a standard multi-top bearish divergence structure has formed!
All rebound moves at every level are merely weak bull-trap “repairs,” with no sustained bullish momentum!

The chart is very clear:
Positions at high levels are continuously being distributed; the bearish trend is already fully established. Next comes a step-by-step grind lower with an accelerated pullback sell-off. For today’s “big pie,” traders are advised to enter head positions short in the 60-605 range, add at 615, with targets at 58500 and 57500!
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