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Galaxy has further lowered the probability of the CLARITY Act's passage in the US
Analysts at Galaxy Digital have revised their assessment of the probability of the CLARITY Act's passage in 2026 for the second time, lowering it from 60% to 50%. Just a few months ago, the company had estimated its chances of passage at 75%.
According to Galaxy senior analyst Alex Thorn, the problem is not with the bill itself, but with a lack of time. CLARITY remains on the Senate calendar, but no vote date has been scheduled, and there are only a few weeks left until Congress's August recess.
Thorn believes the bill has to compete for space on the agenda with other, higher-priority items. If the Senate does not schedule its consideration in early July, the probability of CLARITY's passage this year will continue to decline.
At the same time, Galaxy notes that negotiations on the bill are ongoing. According to the company's estimate, the probability of its passage by the end of the year remains fairly high even after the forecast was lowered to 50%.