In-depth Analysis of the French Team — Why Are They the Heavy Favorites to Win?

France, ranked 3rd in FIFA with a total squad value of €1.53 billion, is undeniably one of the biggest favorites to win this World Cup. In the first two group stage matches, France defeated Senegal 3-1 and Iraq 3-0, scoring 6 goals while conceding only 1, demonstrating championship-level dominance on both ends of the pitch.

Mbappé leads the scoring charts with 4 goals, Dembélé (2025 Ballon d'Or winner) is highly creative, and Olise has shown astonishing assisting efficiency with 3 assists in 2 games. France averages 64.3% possession and scores a goal every 7 shots, with an attacking conversion rate among the highest in the World Cup. Defensively, France ranks 6th in the World Cup, conceding only 0.5 goals per game. The midfield barrier formed by Tchouaméni and Rabiot effectively cuts off the opponent's offensive organization.

France's overall squad depth is arguably the best in this tournament. The defense led by Saliba (€100 million) and Upamecano (€100 million), the midfield core of Tchouaméni (€90 million) and Camavinga (€90 million), and the attacking trio of Mbappé (€180 million), Dembélé (€100 million), and Olise (€150 million) — at least 15 players in France's 26-man squad are valued at over €50 million. Even if 5-6 key players are rotated, the replacements are still players at the level of Kanté, Thuram, Barcola, and Emery.

France has reached the knockout stage in each of its last three World Cup appearances and has made the final in the last two editions. France remains unbeaten in 6 matches against European teams in the World Cup finals (5 wins, 1 draw). Tournament experience is France's most valuable asset — these players have been through the 2018 title win and the 2022 runner-up finish, and they know how to control the tempo and emotions in crucial matches.

However, hidden dangers also exist. France has conceded goals in each of its last 6 matches, meaning the defense is not impenetrable. France has conceded in each of its last 3 World Cup matches. Saliba admitted to playing through minor injuries, and there is a possibility of protective rotation. In France's last 5 matches, none had fewer than 2.5 total goals, reflecting a high-scoring, open style that sometimes leaves defensive gaps due to overcommitting.

Another variable in this match is that head coach Deschamps has returned to France due to his mother's passing, and assistant coach Stéphane will take charge on the sidelines. Deschamps has coached France for 14 years since 2012, and how much his absence affects the team's tactical execution and in-game adjustments is the biggest unknown before the match.

A draw would be enough for France to secure first place in the group, meaning the team could adopt a more cautious tactical approach. However, if playing conservatively causes them to lose attacking rhythm, it could leave an opening for Norway. Regardless, France's quality and depth give them a clear advantage — if they perform at their normal level, they are the side closer to victory. #挪威VS法国