Federal Reserve Chairman Walsh's first round of personnel appointments after taking office selected two central bank veterans with nearly 30 years of experience. One specializes in financial stability and credit markets, while the other's model shows that soft landing has given way to high inflation plus weak growth. This is not just a personnel change; it is a signal reset of the policy framework.

The market is still focused on PCE and ETF outflows, but what is more worth thinking about is: Walsh was already known as a hawk when he was a Fed governor, and now he is forming a team and setting up a working group to review communication methods and portfolio management, indicating that he is not satisfied with the current interest rate path. The median of Reuters survey has pushed the rate cut expectation to the end of 2027—a year later than a month ago.
For crypto, high interest rates remaining flat means that risk-free returns continue to be attractive, and the arbitrage space for stablecoins and RWA will be compressed, not expanded. The continuous net outflows of ETFs are not just an emotional issue; institutions are repricing the cost of holding. Bitcoin rebounded from 60k to 59.7k. This level of volatility is more like short covering, not a trend reversal.
The downside risk is that if the Walsh team ultimately pushes for more aggressive balance sheet reduction or raises the long-term interest rate target, the crypto market may face a more persistent liquidity withdrawal than in 2022. After all, there was still the expectation of rate cuts to provide support back then, but now even that anchor is loosening.
$btc #defi #rwa #稳定币 #etf