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Prediction markets are doing nearly $30B a month in volume now.
The original idea was elegant. Let crowds reveal what they actually believe through money, not words.
What showed up instead is an interesting mix of gamblers, political obsessives, serious analysts, and occasionally people who seem to know things before they should.
But here's the thing. Despite all that, the odds on these markets still tend to beat the experts. Maybe the crowd doesn't need to be right for the right reasons to be right.