NEAR 06.25 Original Complete Review + Latest Market Posture Prediction

Analysis Time: 2026.06.26 20:51
Current Price: 1.784 USDT
24-Hour Core Data: Decline 6.89%, Trading Volume 53.4174 million USDT, Daily Range 1.758-1.950

I. 6.25 Original View Review Verification

1. Core Trend Judgment Fully Realized
Original Description: Weak recovery after decline, definitely not a trend reversal, 4-hour bearish trend not over. Current price 1.784 directly breaks below short-term lifeline 1.860, 35% probability bearish path B becomes dominant trend, bullish consolidation logic invalidated.
2. Key Supports All Broken
Original short-term lifeline 1.860 effectively broken, intraday low 1.758 approaches monthly strong defense 1.813, support turned resistance; original short-term resistance 1.922~1.949, strong resistance 1.98~2.005 fully suppressed rebounds, intraday high 1.950 failed to touch above 1.98, selling pressure continues to release.
3. Multi-Timeframe Technical Signals All Matched Predictions
1-hour, 4-hour, daily synchronized bearish dominance, price continues to decline along lower Bollinger Band, daily MACD green bars continue to expand; weekly/monthly large-level pullback cycle judgment confirmed, stepped decline from 3.087 high, no capital inflow to reverse the downtrend structure.
4. Operation Strategy Review Verification
Original clearly stated: reduce position priority when breaking below 1.860, wait for 1.813 to buy; no chasing rebounds with empty position, only light trial near 1.86. Positions without timely reduction/stop-loss suffered significantly expanded floating losses; users strictly selling at highs avoided this deep correction.

II. Current Multi-Timeframe Market Status

1-Hour Short-Term Cycle

1h Bollinger range 1.768-1.868, current price 1.784 close to lower Bollinger Band, MACD double lines sticky near zero axis, short-term minimal oversold recovery demand exists; first resistance above is Bollinger middle band 1.818, strong resistance 1.868, rebound space extremely limited without volume. Immediate support below 1.758, if broken directly tests limit defense 1.72~1.55.

4-Hour Swing Cycle

4h bearish channel intact, continuous decline since high 2.279, 1.860 support completely turned into medium-to-long-term resistance; above 1.98~2.005, 2.07~2.20 accumulates large trapped positions, before breaking and holding 2.07 with volume, all rebounds are weak recoveries.

Daily/Weekly/Monthly Long-Term Cycles

Daily Bollinger middle band 2.099 far from current price, medium-term downtrend formed, daily MACD remains in bearish zone; weekly continues to fall from 2.199, monthly long-term adjustment from 3.087 high, large-level correction cycle not over; only 1.813, 1.72~1.55 ranges retain long-term low-absorption observation logic.

III. Multi-Timeframe Future Market Predictions

Short-Term 1-3 Trading Days

Core fluctuation range 1.758~1.868, two divergent paths:

1. Weak minor recovery (low probability): Small rebound based on low 1.758, test 1.818~1.868 resistance range, then fall back under no volume, low-level grinding;
2. Deep downward probe (high probability): Effective break below 1.758 support, bearish volume pushes down below monthly strong defense 1.813, test 1.72~1.75 limit range.

Medium-Term 1-4 Weeks

1. Stabilization recovery path: BTC stops falling, public chain sector capital returns, NEAR breaks and holds 2.07 with volume, opens recovery space to 2.20~2.32, trend turns strong only after holding 2.32;
2. Continued weak path: Market continues to decline, public chain narrative cools, long-term bottom box consolidation between 1.55~2.07, each rebound height severely limited.

Long-Term Monthly Level

If 1.813 holds, retains low-level recovery logic; holding 2.32 counts as medium-term trend reversal; if effectively breaks below 1.72, this decline cycle lengthens, below 1.55 limit defense becomes key observation level.

IV. Spot Operation Practical Plan

1. Position Holders: Current price 1.784, reduce positions in batches on rebound to 1.818~1.868 range to lower risk; ultimate defense 1.72, if daily closes continuously below, all short-term positions exit, avoid heavy position holding.
2. Empty Position Users: Prohibit buying at current price to bet on reversal; aggressive only test with very small position at 1.72~1.75, stop-loss 1.55; conservative wait for right-side confirmation after breaking and holding 2.07 with volume, or accumulate gradually near 1.55 for long-term.
3. Risk Control Red Line: Currently bearish dominant, overall in downtrend channel, single coin position no more than 15% of total assets; only operate spot, stay away from contract leverage; after breaking 1.813, reassess holding logic, do not blindly add positions to average cost.

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