This Friday, quarterly options on Bitcoin and Ethereum will expire in a concentrated manner, with a notional value of approximately 10 to 11.32 billion USD, of which Bitcoin's expiry scale accounts for about 37% of current open interest.

In other words, roughly one out of every three BTC options will be settled, rolled over, or closed at a loss on the same day, forcing market makers and large capital to intensively adjust positions and hedge within a short period.

This level of expiry is often viewed by the market as a factor that could amplify selling pressure, but it is essentially more like a "position reset": whether volatility increases depends on whether capital chooses to close out risk or continue betting on the next quarter.

In the coming days, changes in spot/futures spread, funding rate, and trading depth may provide clues before the price itself, and the true direction will be determined by how large capital acts around Friday.