FET 06.25 Original Review + Latest Market Outlook

Analysis Time: 2026.06.26 20:18
Current Price: 0.1662 USDT
24-Hour Key Data: Down 3.43%, Trading Volume 9.25M USDT, Intraday Range 0.1597-0.1736

I. Complete Validation of 06.25 Original Views

1. Core Trend Judgment Fully Realized
The original article defined FET as currently in a weak recovery, not a strong upward trend. The current price of 0.1662 remains under pressure, with no signs of a volume-driven reversal rally. The assessment of persistent weakness on the weekly and monthly timeframes has materialized, with no bullish reversal signal throughout.

2. Short-Term Support and Resistance Precisely Matched the Market
The original short-term lifeline at 0.1622: the latest low touched 0.1597, briefly piercing support before quickly rebounding. The price has now returned above the 0.1622 range. The first short-term resistance at 0.1686~0.1712 and strong resistance at 0.174~0.178 continued to cap any rebound. The intraday high of 0.1736 landed just below 0.174, showing clear selling pressure.

3. Short-Term Path Achieved 63% Consolidation Recovery Path
The original high-probability short-term path A (hold above 0.1622, range 0.1622-0.178 consolidation) materialized. The price did not effectively break below 0.1622, maintaining a narrow weak consolidation without triggering the 37% probability deep decline path to 0.1568/0.1398.

4. Trading Strategy Validated
Original holding strategy: keep base position as long as 0.1622 holds, reduce on rebound to 0.174~0.178; for those not holding, do not chase the rebound, only aggressive entry with light position near 0.1622. The current market fully aligns with this risk control logic. Users who did not blindly buy the dip and reduced positions on highs effectively controlled drawdowns.

II. Current Multi-Timeframe Market Status

1-Hour Short-Term Cycle

1h Bollinger Bands range 0.1630-0.1695. Current price 0.1662 sits exactly on the middle Bollinger Band. MACD flattening near the zero line, with balanced bulls and bears. First resistance above is the Bollinger upper band at 0.1695 (corresponding to original resistance 0.1686~0.1712). Support below at 0.1630. The short-term range is narrowing, about to choose a direction.

4-Hour Swing Cycle

4h has continuously broken below two key support-turned-resistance levels at 0.178 and 0.174. The overall bearish structure remains unrepaired. Bollinger Bands continue downward, with price running in the lower half of the bands for an extended period. Only a volume-driven close above 0.174 can reverse the 4-hour weak pattern.

Daily/Weekly/Monthly Long-Term Cycles

Daily Bollinger middle band at 0.1922 is far from current price. Since the 0.2889 high, price has been in a stepped decline, with a complete medium-term downtrend channel. Weekly and monthly all in bearish alignment. The long-term adjustment trend is not over; only short-term oversold minor recovery opportunities exist.

III. Multi-Timeframe Future Outlook

Short-Term (1-3 Trading Days)

Core consolidation range 0.1597-0.1736. Two diverging paths:

1. Consolidation Recovery Path (high probability): Relying on support at 0.1597/0.1622, test resistance at 0.1695~0.1712. Without volume, cannot break through and will retreat, maintaining narrow grinding.
2. Breakdown Weakness Path (low probability): Effective break below 0.1597 support, bearish volume-driven drop to daily strong support 0.1568, extreme case touching 0.1398 ultimate defense level.

Medium-Term (1-4 Weeks)

1. Stabilization Recovery Path: BTC stabilizes and stops declining, capital flows back into the AI sector, FET breaks above 0.178 with volume, opening recovery space to 0.184~0.1897.
2. Sustained Weakness Path: BTC continues downward, AI theme continues to cool, price oscillates in a bottom range of 0.1398~0.178, with each rebound height limited.

Long-Term (Monthly Level)

If 0.1398 ultimate defense holds, long-term logic for low-position accumulation remains. Only when price firmly reclaims 0.205~0.212 can the medium-term trend be considered bullish. If 0.1398 is effectively broken, the current decline cycle lengthens, and the larger structure is completely damaged.

IV. Spot Trading Practical Response Plan

1. Holding Users: Current price 0.1662, hold base position based on 0.1622 support. On rebound to 0.174~0.178 range, reduce positions in batches to lower risk. If daily close breaks below 0.1597, exit all short-term positions, wait for support at 0.1568 to re-enter.

2. Non-Holding Users: Do not chase small short-term rebounds. Aggressive entry only at 0.1620-0.1660 with minimal position, stop loss at 0.1597. Conservative investors wait for phased accumulation at 0.1568/0.1398, or enter after a volume-driven close above 0.178.

3. Risk Control Red Line: Currently in a weak adjustment phase. No heavy full-position betting. FET single coin position should not exceed 15% of total capital. Once below 0.1398, re-evaluate all holding logic. Operate only in spot, stay away from contracts and leverage.

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