10B options settlement lands today, someone is buying below 60k, but don't rush to say "bottom is in"

$BTC $ETH #比特币 #行情分析 #Options Settlement

Brothers, today's article is not about shilling or FOMO, let's talk about something real.

BTC hit a low of 58,035 in the past 24 hours, a new low since September 2024. The Fear & Greed Index directly dropped to 12, the lowest since 2026. Total liquidations across the network in the past 24 hours were $887 million. From the October high of 126,000, it has fallen by more than half.

In this kind of market, there are both those shouting "buy the dip" and those shouting "to zero". But don't rush to believe either of these voices.

Let me first state a few key facts.

First, what day is today? June 26, the quarterly options settlement day.

Nearly $60k worth of Bitcoin options expire today on Deribit, accounting for about 37% of all Bitcoin options open interest. Among them, a large number of put options have strike prices densely clustered in the 58,000 to 60k range.

What does this mean?

Market makers hold a large number of put options, and to maintain delta neutrality, they must continuously sell in the spot market. This is the so-called "pre-settlement magnetic effect" — the closer the price gets to 60k, the easier it is to get pushed down.

But thinking conversely: after the settlement is done? This derivative-induced downward pressure will disappear. With the suppressing force gone, the direction may actually become clearer.

Second, the macro side is also troublesome.

The new Fed Chair Warsh turned hawkish immediately. In March, 12 officials supported rate cuts; by June, 9 supported rate hikes. Bank of America directly predicts a 75 basis point hike this year.

The dollar strengthens, risk assets come under pressure. The correlation coefficient between Bitcoin and the dollar has long been between -0.4 and -0.8 — when the dollar rises, BTC falls, and this pattern has been playing out recently.

Third, but there is a detail worth noting.

BTC bounced from 58,035 to 61,000+ in less than three hours, a spike of three thousand dollars. This shows someone is buying below 60k.

Although it got pushed back down after the buy, it at least shows that this level is not solely controlled by the bears.

Some analysts point out that 58,000 to 59,000 is the current first core defense zone. If it can hold with shrinking volume, combined with today's options settlement completion, there is a high probability of a strong rebound. If it cannot hold, the next level to watch is 57,600 or even lower.

Fourth, there is another hidden mine — Strategy.

Strategy's average cost of holdings is about $64,200, and at 59,000 it is already entirely underwater. If STRC continues to fall, causing funding capacity constraints, it may be forced to sell BTC, forming a death spiral. This risk cannot be ignored.

So how do we view the situation now?

Optimistic logic:

The Fear & Greed Index at 12 — historically, this extreme fear often corresponds to a phase bottom. Options settlement lands today, the suppressing force is about to be removed. Whales added 7,130 BTC in the last 24 hours. Retail is cutting losses, whales are buying the dip.

Pessimistic logic:

Before the macro rate hike expectation is removed, risk assets are unlikely to have a trend reversal. ETFs have seen net outflows for six consecutive weeks, totaling about $6 billion. Miners are selling, about 20% of mining companies have fallen below breakeven. Institutional demand has lost momentum, and new retail buying has nearly dried up.

Both logics have merit. My judgment is:

Short-term (a few days after settlement), there will be volatility around 60k. After today's settlement, the suppressing force disappears, and there may be a short-term bounce. But the bounce space is limited, 65,000 to 66,000 is a strong resistance zone. Don't expect a V-shaped reversal.

Medium-term, wait for two signals: when will the Fed