#法国VS挪威 The market doesn't put France at -160 for no reason—there are solid reasons to favor France.

Overwhelming squad depth. Norway's total squad value is €590 million, less than half of France's. France has world-class players in every position: the attacking trio of Mbappé, Dembélé, and Olise averages 18.8 shots per game, while Norway's defense concedes 1.5 goals per game and ranks 28th in the World Cup—this matchup is essentially a mismatch.

Experience gap in major tournaments. France has reached the World Cup final in two consecutive editions, with their ability to handle high-pressure matches honed through countless tests. Norway is a World Cup newcomer, having last participated in 1998. Although they performed well in the first two games, facing an opponent of France's caliber is a completely different challenge.

Effectiveness of counter-attacking football. Norway must win to secure top spot, meaning they have to push forward. And France is one of the best teams in the world at counter-attacking—Mbappé and Dembélé's speed in open space is almost unstoppable. Norway has the lowest ground duel win rate in the group, which will be a fatal weakness against France's star-studded front line.

Opta simulation gives France a 55.4% win probability, while AI simulation puts it at 48.5%. Overall, France wins 2-0.