Prediction is one thing; trading is another. Here are a few trading strategies on Polymarket:

Core strategy—Over 2.5 goals. This is the most certain direction in this match. Norway scored 7 goals and conceded 3 in their first two matches, while France scored 6 and conceded 1; both teams' attacks rank among the top in the World Cup. Norway's defense almost certainly will concede against France's star-studded front line, while Norway themselves have the ability to score against France's potentially rotated defense. Both teams have already secured advancement with no life-or-death pressure, making them more likely to go all-out on offense. The probability of Over 2.5 goals is around 65%, worth a heavy bet.

High-odds upset bet — Norway to win. As mentioned, Polymarket gives Norway about a 20.5% win probability, implying nearly 5x returns. With France possibly rotating, Deschamps absent, and Norway's maximum motivation—the combination makes a Norwegian upset not far-fetched. Use a small position for this upset; the odds are tempting enough.

Risk-averse strategy — France to avoid loss. If you don't want to take too much risk, France to avoid loss (win or draw) is the safest choice. France has a clear overall advantage and a draw secures them first place, so the probability of losing is indeed low.

Risk reminder: Pay attention to the starting lineup before the match—if Haaland or Mbappé is rotated, all strategies need to be reassessed. Also note the potential impact of Deschamps' absence on France's in-game coaching.

Good luck to all! We'll see the outcome at 3 AM. #法国VS挪威