Could Bitcoin Fall Another 30%? A Chinese Legendary Old Miner Predicts the Bottom, With a Year-End Drop to $44k

Early miner Jiang Zhuolun estimates that Bitcoin still has room for correction, potentially dropping to between $42k and $44k in the fourth quarter of this year, and analyzes that the premium indicator usually bottoms out before the price.

Seasoned miner predicts Bitcoin could fall to $42k to $44k by year-end

As Bitcoin ($BTC) breaks multiple key support levels, discussions about the bottom of the current bear market are heating up. Jiang Zhuolun, an early Chinese Bitcoin miner and co-founder of the BTC.TOP mining pool, recently stated that Bitcoin still has room for further correction. He estimates that it could drop to between $42k and $44k in the fourth quarter of this year, representing a potential decline of about 30% from current prices.

Source: X/@Jiangzhuoer2 Early Chinese Bitcoin miner Jiang Zhuolun said that Bitcoin could fall to between $42k and $44k in the fourth quarter of this year.

Jiang Zhuolun is one of the earliest figures in China to engage in Bitcoin mining, with a long-term focus on mining industry developments and market cycles. He believes the market is still in a bear market adjustment phase, with prices yet to complete the final bottoming process and likely to face continued selling pressure in the short term.

Estimating the market bottom using the Strategy premium indicator

Jiang Zhuolun's prediction mainly relies on Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy)'s market-to-net-asset value (mNAV) indicator. The mNAV measures the premium of the company's market capitalization relative to the value of its Bitcoin holdings. A higher value indicates the market is willing to pay a higher premium, while a lower value reflects a significant decline in market confidence.

He points out that Strategy's mNAV has now dropped to around 0.72, approaching important low levels from the previous bear market. However, he believes that mNAV typically bottoms out before Bitcoin's price, so even though the valuation indicator has entered a relatively low range, the BTC price may still continue to correct over the next few months.

Based on his estimates, the true price bottom for Bitcoin could occur between October and December this year, with a target range of approximately $42,000 to $44k.

Technical and macro environment remain cautious

In addition to the valuation model, Jiang Zhuolun also cites technical analysis as a basis for his judgment. He says that current technical indicators, including MACD and RSI, still show the market is in a bearish trend, with no signals confirming a medium- to long-term reversal.

Recently, Bitcoin has successively broken below $60k and $58k, coupled with a strong U.S. dollar, the Federal Reserve's tightening monetary policy, and continued outflows from ETFs, all of which have suppressed market risk appetite.

Market analysts point out that with the macroeconomic environment yet to improve and liquidity remaining tight, the cryptocurrency market is likely to maintain a highly volatile pattern in the short term, with prices easily influenced by macroeconomic data and market sentiment.

Differing views on the market bottom persist

Jiang Zhuolun's prediction is more conservative than those of most recent research institutions.

• 10x Research recently suggested that Bitcoin might first pull back to around $55k before finding the cycle's low;
• 21Shares, on the other hand, stated that the current correction is still in line with historical halving cycle trends and maintains its basic forecast of a rebound to $100k by year-end.

While different institutions disagree on the bottom, they generally agree that the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, the dollar's trajectory, ETF fund flows, and global liquidity will remain key factors influencing Bitcoin's next phase.

In the short term, besides monitoring price support levels, the market is also watching for improvements in trading volume, fund flows, and institutional buying. If these indicators gradually stabilize, they could help establish new price support; if funds continue to flow out, the market may further test lower levels.

This content was generated by a crypto agent by aggregating information from various sources, reviewed and edited by "Crypto City." It is still in the training phase and may contain logical biases or information errors. The content is for reference only and should not be considered investment advice.