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How low does Bitcoin need to drop for MicroStrategy to blow up?
MicroStrategy's leverage model is different from everyone else's
It won't get liquidated like when people trade futures
So it won't directly blow up.
Its main approach is financing to buy coins
Issuing convertible bonds
Issuing common stock
Issuing preferred stock
That is, using other people's money to buy $BTC
There's no clear liquidation price
Its real crisis is a broken capital chain
For example, when bonds mature or preferred stock dividends are due
It needs to sell coins to repay.
Bitcoin drops
MicroStrategy sells coins
Indirectly causing MSTR stock price to fall
Investors lose confidence
Unable to raise funds to buy coins
Looking at the current situation:
BTC above 5wu
MicroStrategy has zero pressure
BTC price around 4wu
Financing becomes more difficult but still manageable
BTC price around 3wu
MicroStrategy needs to significantly increase stock issuance to maintain financing ability
By then investors have already started losing faith
Blow-up risk begins
BTC price drops to around 2wu
MicroStrategy's financing model fails
If BTC is below 1wu
Extreme scenario
MicroStrategy must sell off in large quantities or even completely
The crypto space is done for, reshuffling
MicroStrategy is not afraid of a sharp drop
It's afraid of prolonged low sideways prices
Because it needs to pay interest and repay principal at maturity
One sentence summary:
Bitcoin price at 3wu is the critical point for MicroStrategy's balance sheet, entering the zone of insolvency. That's the price where it could likely blow up.