#美国5月PCE通胀升至4.1%创三年新高 Inflation returns to the '4% range,' and the Fed's rate cut fantasy is crumbling.

On June 25, 2026, the U.S. Department of Commerce reported that the PCE price index rose 4.1% year-over-year in May, the highest since April 2023; core PCE rose 3.4% year-over-year, the highest since October 2023. Both figures are well above the Fed's 2% target, signaling that inflation is not only stubborn but also accelerating its resurgence.

The energy shock is just the surface; core inflation is the real alarm. The direct driver of the May PCE jump was the U.S.-Iran conflict pushing up international oil prices, with energy prices rising 4% that month. However, core PCE also rose from 3.3% to 3.4%, revealing problems far more intractable than energy. Services costs have accelerated again, becoming the core driver—core services inflation excluding housing has climbed to 3.7%; durable goods prices rose 3.3% year-over-year, and the 'deflation buffer' that had been weak for a long time before the pandemic is permanently disappearing. The effect of tariff hikes has not yet been fully absorbed, and the housing deflation dividend has peaked—multiple structural pressures indicate that a mere drop in oil prices cannot cure inflation.

Strong consumption and depleted savings: a dangerous combination. Personal consumption expenditures in May rose 0.7% month-over-month, well above the expected 0.5%; real consumption expenditures rose 0.3%. But supporting all this is a savings rate of only 3.0%, the lowest since 2022. Consumers are drawing on savings to maintain living standards under high prices—this path is unsustainable.

Policy dilemma: rate hike expectations heat up, but the economy is flashing yellow. The Fed just held rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% for the fourth consecutive time in June, but 9 of the 19 policymakers now expect at least one rate hike this year. Former dove Goolsbee publicly admitted that core inflation 'is not moving in a desirable direction'; market expectations for a September rate hike have surged to 85%. Goldman Sachs expects a move as early as July, while Bank of America predicts 25-basis-point hikes in September, October, and December. At the same time, the logic of 'wartime inflation, postwar recession' is fermenting—persistently high prices erode purchasing power, rate hikes suppress investment, and the risk of economic contraction heats up simultaneously.

Behind the market's 'sigh of relief' lies deeper anxiety. After the data release, U.S. stock futures rose and gold rebounded nearly $30, with traders even reducing rate hike bets—merely a temporary breather because the data 'met expectations.' But this optimism is extremely fragile. If core inflation does not slow in the next two months, the Fed's assessment of a rate hike in September will no longer be hypothetical.

The PCE breaking through 4% is no accident, but a concentrated eruption of deep-seated contradictions in the U.S. economy. When an energy shock collides with structural inflation, when strong consumption is built on depleted savings, when rate hikes to fight inflation clash head-on with recession risks—the Fed is standing at the most difficult policy crossroads in nearly a decade. Inflation has re-emerged, and the battle is far from over.