CryptoQuant Founder: It’s hard to say whether Bitcoin has reached its bottom—hitting the realized price is the key.

CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju recently stated that it is still unclear whether Bitcoin has reached the bottom of this cycle. Citing logarithmic scale charts and historical cycle patterns, he noted that the current Bitcoin price does not appear to be near the bottom area; in past major cycles, Bitcoin has touched the "realized price" (the average cost of all holders). If this does not occur in this cycle, it may indicate that market structure has changed from the past.
(Previous context: PlanB warns Bitcoin will break through the "53k USD" realized price! Is the historical bear market iron law unbreakable?)
(Background supplement: CryptoQuant: Bitcoin's "ultimate bear market bottom" is at $55k, bottoming may take months, all six indicators not yet in place)

Key Takeaways

• Ki Young Ju: According to logarithmic scale charts, Bitcoin's current price is still not close to the traditional cycle bottom zone
• CryptoQuant data shows Bitcoin's "realized price" is around $53.6k, currently around $62k, the gap remains significant
• Historically, every major cycle has touched the realized price; if this cycle does not, it means market structure has changed from the past

For Ki Young Ju, the bottom price requires preconditions. He recently pointed out on social media that, based on the historical patterns of logarithmic scale charts (where the vertical axis uses multiples rather than absolute amounts to show gains and losses, making different price levels appear consistent in proportion), Bitcoin's current position still does not seem close to the cycle bottom, and there is still a distance to go before the end of the traditional cycle.

As Bitcoin's price approaches investors' cost basis (the average purchase cost of holders), Ki Young Ju believes the risk/reward ratio (the ratio of potential profit to possible loss) usually improves significantly, but the problem is that it hasn't reached that position yet. CryptoQuant data shows that Bitcoin's current "realized price" (a weighted average of the price at which each Bitcoin last moved on-chain, roughly equivalent to the market's average holding cost) is around $53.6k, while Bitcoin is currently trading around $62k; the gap between the two remains quite obvious, which is what Ki Young Ju means by "not at the bottom yet."

If this cycle does not touch the cost basis line?

The second point Ki Young Ju raised might be more frightening: in every major Bitcoin cycle, the price has touched the realized price in the bottom area, putting the entire market average at a "break-even" critical point.

CryptoQuest's previous research also set the structural bear market bottom target at around $55k, with the $55,000 to $56k range seen as a convergence zone for historical bottoming and "realized loss exhaustion." If Bitcoin never touches this line and reverses upward in this cycle, it may indicate a change in market participant structure, making past cycle bottom logic no longer fully applicable, rather than simply "this bull market is stronger."

The previous 2027 bear market warning "extended"

This is not the first time Ki Young Ju has issued atypical warnings about this cycle. He previously noted that this bear market might extend to the end of 2026 or early 2027, and "the four-year cycle theory may have been broken." This latest warning from the logarithmic chart is an extension of that argument, not a completely new viewpoint; whether the market is willing to accept it is another matter.

The above is not investment advice.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the realized price, and why is it considered an important reference for the cycle bottom?

The realized price is a weighted average of the transaction price when each Bitcoin last moved on-chain, equivalent to the market's average holding cost. In every historical bear market bottom, Bitcoin has once fallen to around this level, meaning the average holder across the market is at a loss and selling pressure is fully released, making it one of the important signals for bottom confirmation.

If Bitcoin does not touch the realized price in this cycle, what does it mean?

Ki Young Ju believes this would mean the market structure is different from history, possibly due to an increased proportion of long-term institutional holders, a change in selling pressure structure, or the four-year cycle theory itself becoming invalid. This is not necessarily a pessimistic signal, but it means past cycle judgment frameworks need recalibration.

This article is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile; please carefully assess risks before investing.