Lenovo lays it bare: memory is super expensive, and we’re never going back! Consumers will end up paying the bill.

Lenovo publicly warned at the ISC 2026 International Supercomputing Conference that DRAM (computer main memory) and NAND flash memory prices have entered a structural upward cycle. Even with Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron continuing to expand production, it is extremely difficult for prices to fall back to early 2025 levels. High prices are expected to become the "new normal" after 2030, and will ultimately pass through to consumer electronics such as PCs, gaming consoles, and smartphones. Lenovo CFO Winston Cheng described the situation as "unprecedented" and stated that the company has already hoarded memory inventory to about 50% above normal levels to combat the continuous price increases.
(Previous update: AI consumes memory capacity! Apple can't hold out and raises MacBook and iPad prices, stock drops over 5%)
(Background supplement: Micron Q3 earnings preview: Gross margin of 81% surpasses Nvidia! AI memory super cycle to trigger 14% stock price volatility?)

Table of Contents

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• HBM eats up 23% of DRAM wafer capacity
• New capacity won't come online until 2028, the "new normal" in 2030 will be even more expensive than now
• PCs, gaming consoles, smartphones—consumers ultimately foot the bill for costs

Key Takeaways

• Lenovo CFO Winston Cheng said at ISC 2026 that memory costs are "unprecedented." The company has hoarded inventory to about 50% above normal levels, covering DRAM, LPDDR, DDR, GDDR, and HBM, choosing to stockpile rather than wait for price drops to deal with ongoing increases.
• Server DRAM quotes from Samsung and SK Hynix once surged 60% to 70%. Micron can only satisfy about 55% to 60% of core customer demand. HBM has consumed about 23% of DRAM wafer capacity, with a wafer conversion ratio of approximately 3:1—every additional unit of HBM crowds out three units of general-purpose memory supply.
• Lenovo estimates that new capacity will only gradually come online in 2028, and a "new normal" may form by 2030. However, price levels at that time will still be far higher than those in 2024 and 2025. The pressure to raise prices on consumer electronics such as PCs, gaming consoles, and smartphones is expected to last at least five years.

Lenovo CFO Winston Cheng said one thing at the ISC 2026 conference: "Never more be like last year." Behind this statement lies the fact that DRAM (computer main memory) and NAND flash memory (storage flash memory) have simultaneously entered a structural price increase cycle. The expansion plans of the three major memory manufacturers simply cannot keep up with the demand gap, and Lenovo estimates that consumers will have to bear the cost until at least 2030.

The trend chart Lenovo displayed at the conference shows that this round of price increases began to deviate from the end of the third quarter of 2025, with prices breaking through market expectations and showing no signs of turning back. Server DRAM quotes from Samsung and SK Hynix once surged 60% to 70%. Micron even publicly stated that it can only satisfy about 55% to 60% of core customer demand, and hyperscalers like Google and Microsoft are already queuing up to grab supply.

This is not a cyclical shortage caused by supply-demand imbalance; it is manufacturers actively shifting production capacity elsewhere, and the direction is very clear.

HBM eats up 23% of DRAM wafer capacity

The root of the problem lies in HBM (High Bandwidth Memory, the favorite type for AI servers). HBM has already consumed about 23% of DRAM wafer capacity, and the proportion is still rising. More critically, the wafer capacity conversion ratio: for every additional wafer devoted to HBM, about three wafers' worth of general-purpose memory supply is crowded out. In other words, for every extra unit the AI server market takes, the consumer market loses three.

Hyperscalers are throwing money to grab HBM, so the three major memory manufacturers naturally shift capacity toward high-margin server-grade and enterprise-grade components. Consumer-grade memory supply is thus voluntarily sacrificed. This is different from past cyclical shortages; those could be resolved by manufacturers expanding production. This time, manufacturers are making a strategic structural reallocation, and the consumer market is actively being deprioritized.

"Unprecedented." Lenovo CFO Winston Cheng used this word to describe the surge in memory costs, revealing that the company has piled inventory to about 50% above normal levels, covering DRAM, LPDDR, DDR, GDDR, and HBM, choosing to stockpile rather than wait for price drops to respond.

New capacity won't come online until 2028, the "new normal" in 2030 will be even more expensive than now

The timeline Lenovo provided leaves little room for optimism. New capacity will only gradually come online in 2028, and a so-called "new normal" may form by 2030. But Lenovo made it clear that even then, price levels will be far higher than those in 2024 and 2025. This is not a cycle you can wait out; it's a shift in the entire baseline.

Even with expansion, the gap cannot be filled. This shortage is different from before. This judgment wasn't made by Lenovo alone at ISC 2026; the three major memory manufacturers also sent similar signals. Micron's statement was the most direct: even core customers can only get about 55% to 60% of their demand, so non-core customers need not even ask.

PCs, gaming consoles, smartphones—consumers ultimately foot the bill for costs

The ultimate target of Lenovo's warning is consumers. High memory costs will be passed down. Prices of PCs, gaming consoles, smartphones, and all end products with memory or solid-state drives (SSDs) face upward pressure. Lenovo's timeline is "the next five years," covering almost two replacement cycles.

Lenovo's own response is to hoard inventory 50% above normal. This is not optimism; it's defense. That the world's largest PC manufacturer chooses to stockpile rather than wait for prices to fall says a lot.

FAQ

When will memory prices drop back?

Lenovo estimates new capacity will only gradually come online in 2028, and a new normal may form by 2030, but prices will still be far higher than 2025 levels. As long as HBM continues to consume about 23% of DRAM wafer capacity, consumer-grade supply will struggle to recover, and no reversal is expected in the short term.

Why does AI demand keep driving up DRAM and NAND prices?

Hyperscalers like Google and Microsoft are heavily purchasing HBM (High Bandwidth Memory), prompting the three major memory manufacturers to shift wafer capacity toward server-grade components. The wafer conversion ratio is about 3:1—for every additional unit of HBM, three units of general-purpose DRAM are crowded out. This is a structural reallocation, not a cyclical shortage that can be solved by expanding production.