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Macquarie: Lowers year-end gold price forecast to $4,300, expects gold to decline year by year from next year through 2030
The apparent end of the Middle East conflict, coupled with a more hawkish stance by the Federal Reserve, has led to a pullback in gold prices.
The tone of the first meeting of new Fed Chair Warsh was "hawkish," and under his leadership, the central bank has the ability to "boost or suppress" gold market prices.
The impact of the Middle East situation is expected to drag on global growth in the third quarter, after which the eventual recovery in global growth and the start of monetary policy easing cycles should push gold prices lower, as more investor funds shift from precious metals to other assets.
Investors have been taking profits and shifting to the stock market, which creates room for investors to re-enter the precious metals space, thereby driving a price recovery, but this may require a major macro event to rekindle investor interest in gold.
Forecasts for the average spot gold price in 2026 are 4641 USD, up 35% year-on-year, but the average price in 2027 is expected to fall 9.5% to 4200 USD, and then decline year by year to 2030.
The bank lowered its year-end spot gold forecast from 4400 USD to 4300 USD. (Jin Shi)