All three price ranges are extremely low-probability scenarios with no mainstream consensus expectations.


Probability of falling below $65: 7%, odds 12.99x, the highest relative expectation among the three.
Probability of rising above $80: 4%, odds 21.28x.
Probability of rising above $85: only 1%, odds 23.26x.
All three tiers have extremely low capital approval, and the market does not believe oil prices will hit these three extreme levels.
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GoldfishOnIce
· 17m ago
The odds look tempting but the probability is too low. The market consensus remains stable in the 70-75 range, oscillating. Can't afford to gamble on extreme movements.
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