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II. Today's Core Driving Logic
1. The core bearish factors suppressing gold prices remain
The hawkish expectations of the Federal Reserve have not completely dissipated. The market still prices in the possibility of a rate hike within the year. The 10-year US Treasury yield remains at a high level above 4.4%, and the US dollar index stands firm in the strong range of 101.4. As a non-yielding asset, gold's holding cost is relatively high, and its rebound momentum continues to be suppressed.
2. Short-term support comes from fully priced-in bearish factors
The two rounds of inflation data (CPI and PCE) for May have been released. The extreme fear of rate hikes has marginally cooled. Below 4000, there has been buying support at low levels. After the continuous decline, technical indicators have entered oversold territory, indicating a need for technical repair.
3. Safe-haven logic weakens
Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have eased, and the geopolitical premium has faded. Funds are no longer purely flowing into gold as a safe haven. The US dollar has attracted safe-haven capital, further weakening the bullish momentum for gold prices.