Could the U.S. crypto bill accelerate voting in July? Insider reporter: Lawmakers' sense of urgency is growing, but four major issues remain unresolved.

The U.S. Congress plans to accelerate the "Digital Asset Market Clarity Act" in July, but with only four weeks left in the session and four core disputes—including high-level official ethics and DeFi exemptions—unresolved, the passage rate for this year has dropped to 48%.

U.S. Crypto Legislation Pushed Urgently, Key Vote Looms in July

Independent reporter Eleanor Terrett, who covers U.S. crypto regulation, revealed today (June 26) that the urgency among Republican lawmakers to push the "Digital Asset Market Clarity Act" through has increased significantly.

This sense of urgency is primarily driven by political pressure from the U.S. housing bill controversy and the reality of limited remaining session time. Terrett noted that after senators return to Washington from recess on July 13, they will have only 20 working days before the August summer recess, leaving just about four weeks to send the bill to the Senate for a vote and return it to the House.

Meanwhile, the U.S. House Financial Services Committee previously announced that the Subcommittee on Digital Assets, Financial Technology, and AI is scheduled to hold a field hearing in New York on July 17, titled "Building the Financial Future: How the Clarity Act Unleashes Innovation."

Source: X Eleanor Terrett revealed today (June 26) that the urgency among Republican lawmakers to push the "Digital Asset Market Clarity Act" through has increased significantly.

Although lawmakers had not reached consensus on key issues including ethics provisions before leaving Washington at the end of June, The Block reported that Senate aides revealed the Clarity Act will become a bipartisan priority in July.

Senator Cynthia Lummis, in an interview with Fox Business, estimated that negotiators will release the final compromise text around July 4 and formally push for a vote on the bill in mid-July.

Trump Refuses to Sign Housing Bill, Political Spillover Affects Crypto Law

However, the U.S. congressional agenda is facing intense pressure from other major bills.

According to CoinDesk, U.S. President Donald Trump suddenly refused to sign a housing bill that had bipartisan support. The bill originally included a provision banning central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) until the end of 2030—a four-year ban—which was strongly supported by the crypto industry.

Trump argues that until Congress passes the SAVE America Act, which requires voters to show a photo ID, he will hold off on other legislation. House Speaker Mike Johnson subsequently said he would try to include the voter ID bill in other budget measures.

• Related Report: Trump Refuses to Sign Housing Bill Containing CBDC Ban! Demands SAVE Act First: This Is a National Emergency

Trump's move triggered a chain reaction, disrupting Congress's established rhythm. TD Cowen policy analyst Jaret Seiberg analyzed that since Senate Republicans are unlikely to eliminate the filibuster mechanism, the voter ID bill has a very low chance of passing the Senate.

Sources in the crypto industry revealed that Trump's refusal to sign added more uncertainty to Congress, leading to a crisis of trust among Democrats, who believe any agreement reached could be overturned at any time. Additionally, legislative fatigue has emerged within Congress.

Moreover, the Senate must also handle the National Defense Authorization Act in July, the Farm Bill (updated every five years with broad impacts), and controversial personnel nominations, such as the Trump administration's appointment of Federal Housing Finance Agency Director Bill Pulte to concurrently serve as Director of National Intelligence. This leaves the Clarity Act facing fierce competition for limited floor time.

Clarity Act Still Has Four Major Unresolved Issues

CoinDesk analysis pointed out that even as the legislative process faces threats, negotiations on the Clarity Act remain incomplete on four core aspects:

Ethics Restrictions for High-Level Government Officials

Democratic Senators Ruben Gallego and Kirsten Gillibrand, among others, are holding tripartite talks with Republicans and the White House.

Democrats have strongly criticized the Trump family's involvement in the crypto business WLF, from which they have profited over $1 billion. In response, White House advisor Patrick Witt proposed expanding the scope of restrictions on officials to avoid directly targeting the President personally.

• Related Report: Reuters Reveals "Indirect Links" Between Iranian Exchange and Trump's WLF: Handled $2.3 Billion via BNB, Tron Chain

However, after Republicans and the White House withdrew a provision authorizing state attorneys general to sue if the Department of Justice fails to enforce ethics rules, bipartisan ethics talks on June 9 reached a deadlock, and no consensus has been reached to date.

Legal Immunity for DeFi Developers

The "Blockchain Regulatory Certainty Act" provision in the bill aims to clarify that non-custodial developers are not money transmitters. While supported by the industry, Democratic Senator Catherine Cortez Masto has consistently opposed it and called for amendments.

Law enforcement agencies and Catholic Church leaders also worry that this would weaken tools to combat crimes such as human trafficking. Senator Lummis responded that the bill already includes $150 million in dedicated funding to combat illegal crypto activities.

• Related Report: A Dawn for DeFi Developers? U.S. SEC: Certain Crypto Trading Interfaces Can Be Exempted from Registering as Brokers

Partisan Struggle to Fill CFTC Vacancies

Democrats on the Senate Agriculture Committee are demanding that the two Democratic commissioner vacancies on the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) be filled.

Stablecoin Yield Dispute Between Banking and Crypto Industries

The dispute between the banking and crypto industries over stablecoin yield rebates continues. While Senators Angela Alsobrooks and Thom Tillis reached a compromise version last month limiting the link between rebates and account balances, the American Bankers Association and JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon have publicly expressed strong opposition and plan to block the bill.

• Related Report: Crypto Bill Stalled! JPMorgan Opposes Stablecoin Interest; Lawmaker: If We Don't Pass It, We'll Lose to China

Missing the Window Before August Recess Could Delay Bill Until 2030

Facing a tight schedule, the crypto industry is making a full-court press. Cody Carbone, CEO of the Digital Chamber, said that crypto firms including Hyperliquid, Elliptic, and Anchorage Digital have formed a 50-person delegation to visit Capitol Hill, meeting with about 30 undecided congressional offices to seek support.

Additionally, the Blockchain Association, along with 160 former U.S. national security, intelligence, and law enforcement professionals, sent a joint letter to Senate Majority Leader John Thune and Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer, emphasizing the national security importance of passing the bill.

Summer Mersinger, CEO of the Blockchain Association and former CFTC commissioner, remains optimistic, believing that the current disputes are resolvable and that a July vote is still an achievable goal.

Source: financial-planning Blockchain Association CEO and former CFTC commissioner Summer Mersinger

However, traders on the prediction market Polymarket have seen the odds of the Clarity Act passing by 2026 drop from 74% last month to 48% currently. Galaxy Research estimates the probability at about 50%, reflecting market and institutional caution about the legislative progress.

Lummis also warned that if Congress misses the window before the August recess, with the November midterm elections approaching, the bill would be forced into the lame-duck session at the end of the year, or even delayed until 2030 due to a restructuring of Congress.

Mark Hays, deputy director of the financial reform group Americans for Financial Reform (AFR), also noted that most Americans are more concerned about the Farm Bill, which involves food and agricultural assistance, than this niche issue pushed by a small group of wealthy interests. If the bill fails to pass this year, it would restart in the new Congress next January.