After trading for so many years, I increasingly feel that many people lose money not because of poor skills, but because they love to guess too much.

Guessing tops, guessing bottoms, guessing surges, guessing reversals, wanting to be the first to discover opportunities every day.
The result is often that you guess right once, make a little money, and then guess wrong once, and all the previous profits are given back.
In my first few years in the market, I was the same, studying indicators every day, understanding moving averages, MACD, divergences thoroughly, and before placing a trade, I would even write a full analysis report.
But later, my account told me a reality: more analysis doesn't necessarily mean more profit.
After truly settling down, I instead discarded a lot of complex stuff.
Now when I look at the charts, I only focus on a few key points.
First, see where market funds are actually flowing, which coins have sustained capital attention, and which coins are just short-term hype. Many times prices can deceive, but capital rarely lies.
Secondly, position sizing.
In the past, when I saw a good opportunity, I would rush in with full position; now, no matter how good the opportunity, I enter in batches. If the direction is correct, I add more; if not, I leave immediately.
The reason many people suffer huge losses is not misjudging the market, but putting all their position in one go, blocking their escape route.
Another point is especially important.
When the market is most lively, I become more cautious; when the market is most quiet, I start seriously looking for opportunities.
Because most people only believe when prices rise and are afraid when they fall, but truly big opportunities often appear when emotions are most extreme.
The biggest insight over these years is just one sentence.
Don't always try to predict where the market will go; just follow where it goes.
Less fantasy, more execution; less gambling, more discipline.
Earn money you can understand, take opportunities you are confident in, and your account will become more stable over time$BTC